• Gary S Collins and Douglas G Altman.
• Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Wolfson College Annexe, University of Oxford, Linton Road, Oxford, UK. gary.collins@csm.ox.ac.uk
• Eur. J. Cancer. 2013 Mar 1; 49 (5): 1040-8.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) for predicting the risk of undiagnosed gastro-oesophageal cancer in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records.DesignOpen cohort study to validate QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) prediction model. Three hundred sixty-five practices from the United Kingdom contributing to The Health Improvement Network database. 2.1 million patients registered with a general practice surgery between 01 January 2000 and 30 June 2008, aged 30-84years (3.7 million person years) with 1766 gastro-oesophageal cancer cases. The outcome, gastro-oesophageal cancer was defined as incident diagnosis of gastro-oesophageal cancer during the 2years after study entry.ResultsThe results from this independent and external validation of QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) demonstrated good performance data on a large cohort of general practice patients. QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) had very good discrimination with c-statistics of 0.93 and 0.94 for women and men respectively. QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) was well calibrated across all tenths of risk and over all age ranges with predicted risks closely matching observed risks. QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) explained 74.4% and 75.6% of the variation in men and women respectively.ConclusionsQCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) is a useful tool to identify undiagnosed gastro-oesophageal cancer in primary care in the United Kingdom.Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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