• Byung Kwan Choi, Myoung Soo Kim, and Soo Hyun Kim.
• Department of Neurosurgery, College of Medicine, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea. Electronic address: spine@pusan.ac.kr.
• J Tissue Viability. 2020 Nov 1; 29 (4): 252-257.

PurposeOral-mucosal pressure injury (PI) is the most commonly encountered medical device-related PIs. This study was performed to identify risk factors and construct a risk prediction model for oral-mucosal PI development in intubated patients in the intensive care unit.MethodsThe study design was prospective, observational with medical record review. The inclusion criteria stipulated that 1) participants should be > 18 years of age, 2) there should be ETT use with holding methods including adhesive tape, gauze tying, and commercial devices. Data of 194 patient-days were analysed. The identification and validation of risk model development was performed using SPSS and the SciKit learn platform.ResultsThe risk prediction logistic models were composed of three factors (bite-block/airway, commercial ETT holder, and corticosteroid use) for lower oral-mucosal PI development and four factors (commercial ETT holder, vasopressor use, haematocrit, and serum albumin level) for upper oral-mucosal PI development among 10 significant input variables. The sensitivity and specificity for lower oral-mucosal PI development were 85.2% and 76.0%, respectively, and those for upper oral-mucosal PI development were 60.0% and 89.1%, respectively. Based on the results of the machine learning, the upper oral-mucosal PI development model had an accuracy of 79%, F1 score of 88%, precision of 86%, and recall of 91%.ConclusionsThe development of lower oral-mucosal PIs is affected by immobility-related factors and corticosteroid use, and that of upper oral-mucosal PIs by undernutrition-related factors and ETT holder use. The high sensitivities of the two logit models comprise important minimum data for positively predicting oral-mucosal PIs.Copyright © 2020 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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