• Epidemiology · Jul 2018

    Comparative Study

    Assaults on Days of Campaign Rallies During the 2016 US Presidential Election.

    • Christopher N Morrison, Benjamin Ukert, Aimee Palumbo, Beidi Dong, Sara F Jacoby, and Douglas J Wiebe.
    • From the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
    • Epidemiology. 2018 Jul 1; 29 (4): 490-493.

    BackgroundThis study investigates whether assault frequency increased on days and in cities where candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton held campaign rallies prior to the 2016 US Presidential election.MethodsWe calculated city-level counts of police-reported assaults for 31 rallies for Donald Trump and 38 rallies for Hillary Clinton. Negative binomial models estimated the assault incidence on rally days (day 0) relative to that on eight control days for the same city (days -28, -21, -14, -7, +7, +14, +21, and +28).ResultsCities experienced an increase in assaults (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.22) on the days of Donald Trump's rallies, and no change in assaults on the days of Hillary Clinton's rallies (IRR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94-1.06).ConclusionAssaults increased on days when cities hosted Donald Trump's rallies during the 2016 Presidential election campaign.

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