• Jonathan A Waxman, Daniel Graupe, and David W Carley.
• Medical Scientist Training Program, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60612, USA, jawaxman@gmail.com.
• Sleep Breath. 2015 Mar 1; 19 (1): 205-12.

PurposeConventional therapies for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are effective but suffer from poor patient adherence and may not fully alleviate major OSA-associated cardiovascular risk factors or improve certain aspects of quality of life. Predicting the onset of disordered breathing events in OSA patients may lead to improved strategies for treating OSA and inform our understanding of underlying disease mechanisms. In this work, we describe a deployable system capable of performing real-time predictions of sleep disordered breathing events in patients diagnosed with OSA, providing a novel approach for gaining insight into OSA pathophysiology, discovering population subgroups, and improving therapies.MethodsLArge Memory STorage and Retrieval artificial neural networks with 864 different configurations were applied to polysomnogram records from 64 patients. Wavelet transforms, measures of entropy, and other statistics were applied to six physiological signals to provide network inputs. Approximate statistical tests were used to determine the best performing network for each patient. The most important predictors of disordered breathing events in OSA patients were determined by analyzing internal network parameters.ResultsThe average optimized individual prediction sensitivity and specificity were 0.81 and 0.77, respectively. Predictions were better than random guessing for all OSA patients. Analysis of internal network parameters revealed a high degree of heterogeneity among disordered breathing event predictors and may reveal patient subgroups.ConclusionsWe report the first practical system to predict individual disordered breathing events in a heterogeneous group of patients diagnosed with OSA. The pattern of disordered breathing predictors suggests variable underlying pathophysiological mechanisms and highlights the need for an individualized approach to OSA diagnosis, therapy, and management.

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