• Iván Huespe, Indalecio Carboni Bisso, Nicolás A Gemelli, Sergio A Terrasa, Sabrina Di Stefano, Valeria Burgos, Jorge Sinner, Mailen Oubiña, Marina Bezzati, Pablo Delgado, Marcos Las Heras, and Marcelo R Risk.
• Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina. E-mail: ivan.huespe@hospitalitaliano.org.ar.
• Medicina (B Aires). 2021 Jan 1; 81 (4): 508-526.

AbstractPandemics pose a major challenge for public health preparedness, requiring a coordinated international response and the development of solid containment plans. Early and accurate identification of high-risk patients in the course of the current COVID-19 pandemic is vital for planning and making proper use of available resources. The purpose of this study was to identify the key variables that account for worse outcomes to create a predictive model that could be used effectively for triage. Through literature review, 44 variables that could be linked to an unfavorable course of COVID-19 disease were obtained, including clinical, laboratory, and X-ray variables. These were used for a 2-round modified Delphi processing with 14 experts to select a final list of variables with the greatest predictive power for the construction of a scoring system, leading to the creation of a new scoring system: the COVID-19 Severity Index. The analysis of the area under the curve for the COVID-19 Severity Index was 0.94 to predict the need for ICU admission in the following 24 hours against 0.80 for NEWS-2. Additionally, the digital medical record of the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires was electronically set for an automatic calculation and constant update of the COVID-19 Severity Index. Specifically designed for the current COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19 Severity Index could be used as a reliable tool for strategic planning, organization, and administration of resources by easily identifying hospitalized patients with a greater need of intensive care.

9 keywords...

hide…