• Marlin J Broeks, Sander Biesbroek, OverEelco A BEABCentre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, Bilthoven, 3721, MA, The Netherlands., Paul F van Gils, Ido Toxopeus, Marja H Beukers, and TemmeElisabeth H MEHMCentre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, Bilthoven, 3721, MA, The Netherlands. liesbeth.temme@rivm.nl..
• Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, Bilthoven, 3721, MA, The Netherlands.
• Bmc Public Health. 2020 May 11; 20 (1): 643.

BackgroundImplementation of food taxes or subsidies may promote healthier and a more sustainable diet in a society. This study estimates the effects of a tax (15% or 30%) on meat and a subsidy (10%) on fruit and vegetables (F&V) consumption in the Netherlands using a social cost-benefit analysis with a 30-year time horizon.MethodsCalculations with the representative Dutch National Food Consumption Survey (2012-2014) served as the reference. Price elasticities were applied to calculate changes in consumption and consumer surplus. Future food consumption and health effects were estimated using the DYNAMO-HIA model and environmental impacts were estimated using Life Cycle Analysis. The time horizon of all calculations is 30 year. All effects were monetarized and discounted to 2018 euros.ResultsOver 30-years, a 15% or 30% meat tax or 10% F&V subsidy could result in reduced healthcare costs, increased quality of life, and higher productivity levels. Benefits to the environment of a meat tax are an estimated €3400 million or €6300 million in the 15% or 30% scenario respectively, whereas the increased F&V consumption could result in €100 million costs for the environment. While consumers benefit from a subsidy, a consumer surplus of €10,000 million, the tax scenarios demonstrate large experienced costs of respectively €21,000 and €41,000 million. Overall, a 15% or 30% price increase in meat could lead to a net benefit for society between €3100-7400 million or €4100-12,300 million over 30 years respectively. A 10% F&V subsidy could lead to a net benefit to society of €1800-3300 million. Sensitivity analyses did not change the main findings.ConclusionsThe studied meat taxes and F&V subsidy showed net total welfare benefits for the Dutch society over a 30-year time horizon.

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