• Weibo Yu, Haiyan Zhang, Zhensong Yao, Yuanming Zhong, Xiaobing Jiang, and Daozhang Cai.
• Department of Orthopaedics, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
• Pain Med. 2023 Aug 1; 24 (8): 949956949-956.

ObjectiveSecond fractures at the cemented vertebrae (SFCV) are often seen after percutaneous kyphoplasty, especially at the thoracolumbar junction. Our study aimed to develop and validate a preoperative clinical prediction model for predicting SFCV.MethodsA cohort of 224 patients with single-level thoracolumbar osteoporotic vertebral fractures (T11-L2) from 3 medical centers was analyzed between January 2017 and June 2020 to derive a preoperative clinical prediction model for SFCV. Backward-stepwise selection was used to select preoperative predictors. We assigned a score to each selected variable and developed the SFCV scoring system. Internal validation and calibration were conducted for the SFCV score.ResultsAmong the 224 patients included, 58 had postoperative SFCV (25.9%). The following preoperative measures on multivariable analysis were summarized in the 5-point SFCV score: bone mineral density (≤-3.05), serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D3 (≤17.55 ng/mL), standardized signal intensity of fractured vertebra on T1-weighted images (≤59.52%), C7-S1 sagittal vertical axis (≥3.25 cm), and intravertebral cleft. Internal validation showed a corrected area under the curve of 0.794. A cutoff of ≤1 point was chosen to classify a low risk of SFCV, for which only 6 of 100 patients (6%) had SFCV. A cutoff of ≥4 points was chosen to classify a high risk of SFCV, for which 28 of 41 (68.3%) had SFCV.ConclusionThe SFCV score was found to be a simple preoperative method for identification of patients at low and high risk of postoperative SFCV. This model could be applied to individual patients and aid in the decision-making before percutaneous kyphoplasty.© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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