• Junqing Li, Jimei Yang, Min Lv, Xiang Wang, Zhijing Chen, Na Zhou, Xuetao Hou, and Zhen Song.
• Imaging Diagnosis Department, Jinan Second Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China.
• Clinics (Sao Paulo). 2024 Jan 1; 79: 100318100318.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and internally validate a prediction model for estimating the risk of spontaneous abortion in early pregnancy.MethodsThis prospective cohort study included 9,895 pregnant women who received prenatal care at a maternal health facility in China from January 2021 to December 2022. Data on demographics, medical history, lifestyle factors, and mental health were collected. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction model with spontaneous abortion as the outcome. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques, and its discrimination and calibration were assessed.ResultsThe spontaneous abortion rate was 5.95% (589/9,895) 1. The final prediction model included nine variables: maternal age, history of embryonic arrest, thyroid dysfunction, polycystic ovary syndrome, assisted reproduction, exposure to pollution, recent home renovation, depression score, and stress score 1. The model showed good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI 0.87‒0.90) 1, and its calibration was adequate based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.27).ConclusionsThe prediction model demonstrated good performance in estimating spontaneous abortion risk in early pregnancy based on demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors. Further external validation is recommended before clinical application.Copyright © 2023 HCFMUSP. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

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