• Kyung Mee Park, Sang Eun Lee, Changhee Lee, Hyun Duck Hwang, Do Hoon Yoon, Eunchae Choi, and Eun Lee.
• Department of Hospital Medicine, Yongin Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Yongin, Republic of Korea.
• Ann. Med. 2024 Dec 1; 56 (1): 24050772405077.

ObjectiveWe aimed to improve the performance of sleep prediction algorithms by increasing the data amount, adding variables reflecting psychological state, and adjusting the data length.Materials And MethodsWe used ActiGraph GT3X+® and Galaxy Watch Active2™ to collect physical activity and light exposure data. We collected heart rate variability (HRV) data with the Galaxy Watch. We evaluated the performance of sleep prediction algorithms based on different data sources (wearable devices only, sleep diary only, or both), data lengths (1, 2, or 3 days), and analysis methods. We defined the target outcome, 'good sleep', as ≥90% sleep efficiency.ResultsAmong 278 participants who denied having sleep disturbance, we used data including 2136 total days and nights from 230 participants. The performance of the sleep prediction algorithms improved with an increased amount of data and added HRV data. The model with the best performance was the extreme gradient boosting model; XGBoost, using both sources combined data with HRV, and 2-day data (accuracy=.85, area under the curve =.80).ConclusionsThe results show that the performance of the sleep prediction models improved by increasing the data amount and adding HRV data. Further studies targeting insomnia patients and applied researches on non-pharmacological insomnia treatment are needed.

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