• Liqin Sun, Yinsong Luo, Xinyun Jia, Hui Wang, Fang Zhao, Lukun Zhang, Bin Ju, Haiyan Wang, Duo Shan, Yun He, Hongzhou Lu, and Jiaye Liu.
• Department of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Shenzhen Third People's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518010, China.
• Chin. Med. J. 2024 Oct 25.

IntroductionThe triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio, a novel biomarker for metabolic syndrome (MetS), has been validated in the general population as being significantly correlated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, its capabilities to predict CVD in people living with HIV (PLWH) remain underexplored.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 16,081 PLWH who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen (China) from 2005 to 2022. The baseline TG/HDL-C ratio was calculated as TG (mmol/L) divided by HDL-C (mmol/L). We employed a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to assess the association between the TG/HDL-C ratio and CVD occurrence, using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests to compare survival distributions. The increase in prediction risk upon the addition of the biomarker to the conventional risk model was examined through the assessment of changes in net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Nonlinear relationships were investigated using a restricted cubic spline plot, complemented by a two-piecewise Cox proportional hazards model to analyze threshold effects.ResultsAt the median follow-up of 70 months, 213 PLWH developed CVD. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated a significant association between the increased risk of CVD and a higher TG/HDL-C ratio (log-rank P <0.001). The multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model indicated that the CVD hazard ratios (HR) [95% confidence intervals (95% CI)] for Q2, Q3, and Q4 versus Q1 of the TG/HDL-C ratio were 2.07 (1.24, 3.45), 2.17 (1.32, 3.57), and 2.20 (1.35, 3.58), respectively (P <0.05). The consideration of the TG/HDL-C ratio in the model, which included all significant factors for CVD incidence, improved the predictive risk, as indicated by the reclassification metrics (NRI 16.43%, 95%CI 3.35%-29.52, P = 0.014). The restriction cubic spline plot demonstrated an upward trend between the TG/HDL-C ratio and the CVD occurrence (P for non-linear association = 0.027, P for overall significance = 0.009), with the threshold at 1.013. Significantly positive correlations between the TG/HDL-C ratio and CVD were observed below the TG/HDL-C ratio threshold with HR 5.88 (95% CI 1.58, 21.88, P = 0.008), but not above the threshold with HR 1.01 (95% CI 0.88, 1.15, P = 0.880).ConclusionOur study confirms the effectiveness of the TG/HDL-C ratio as a predictor of CVD risk in PLWH, which demonstrates a significant nonlinear association. These findings indicate the potential of the TG/HDL-C ratio in facilitating early prevention and treatment strategies for CVD among PLWH.Copyright © 2024 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.

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