• B Groot Koerkamp, J K Wiggers, M Gonen, A Doussot, P J Allen, M G H Besselink, L H Blumgart, O R C Busch, M I D'Angelica, R P DeMatteo, D J Gouma, T P Kingham, T M van Gulik, and W R Jarnagin.
• Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA Department of Surgery, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam b.grootkoerkamp@erasmusmc.nl.
• Ann. Oncol. 2015 Sep 1; 26 (9): 1930-5.

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to derive and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) after a curative intent resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC).Patients And MethodsA nomogram was developed from 173 patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), New York, USA. The nomogram was externally validated in 133 patients treated at the Academic Medical Center (AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Prognostic accuracy was assessed with concordance estimates and calibration, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. The nomogram will be available as web-based calculator at mskcc.org/nomograms.ResultsFor all 306 patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 40 months and the median DSS 41 months. Median follow-up for patients alive at last follow-up was 48 months. Lymph node involvement, resection margin status, and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors in the derivation cohort (MSKCC). A nomogram with these prognostic factors had a concordance index of 0.73 compared with 0.66 for the AJCC staging system. In the validation cohort (AMC), the concordance index was 0.72, compared with 0.60 for the AJCC staging system. Calibration was good in the derivation cohort; in the validation cohort patients had a better median DSS than predicted by the model.ConclusionsThe proposed nomogram to predict DSS after curative intent resection of PHC had a better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC staging system. Calibration was suboptimal because DSS differed between the two institutions. The nomogram can inform patients and physicians, guide shared decision making for adjuvant therapy, and stratify patients in future randomized, controlled trials.© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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