The Health service journal
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It is possible to forecast emergency admissions and bed requirements with considerable accuracy up to a year in advance. A model is being developed which would analyse the effects of weather, flu epidemics and different surges in demand. The discharge pattern of many hospitals indicates a rush to discharge by the weekend that could raise concerns about appropriate care.
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Despite a large increase in NHS funding, the rate of activity has slowed and may be decreasing. Elective activity has fallen at times when more money is going in. Growth in elective activity has tended to be in planned admissions, which have no direct impact on waiting lists. Unless money is redirected into activity-generating areas that impact on waiting times, the NHS will struggle to deliver on waiting-time targets.