Epidemics
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Cholera is caused by Vibrio cholerae, and is transmitted through fecal-oral contact. Infection occurs after the ingestion of the bacteria and is usually asymptomatic. In a minority of cases, it causes acute diarrhea and vomiting, which can lead to potentially fatal severe dehydration, especially in the absence of appropriate medical care. Immunity occurs after infection and typically lasts 6-36 months. Cholera is responsible for outbreaks in many African and Asian developing countries, and caused localised and episodic epidemics in South America until the early 1990s. Haiti, despite its low socioeconomic status and poor sanitation, had never reported cholera before the recent outbreak that started in October 2010, with over 720,000 cases and over 8700 deaths (Case fatality rate: 1.2%) through 8 december 2014. So far, this outbreak has seen 3 epidemic peaks, and it is expected that cholera will remain in Haiti for some time. ⋯ These findings demonstrate the value of high-resolution mapping for pinpointing locations most affected by cholera, and in the future could help prioritize the places in need of interventions such as improvement of sanitation and vaccination. The findings also describe spatio-temporal transmission patterns of the epidemic in a cholera-naïve country such as Haiti. By identifying transmission hubs, it is possible to target prevention strategies that, over time, could reduce transmission of the disease and eventually eliminate cholera in Haiti.
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International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. ⋯ We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.
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Outbreaks of Ebola virus can cause substantial morbidity and mortality in affected regions. The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014. To develop a better understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics, we revisited data from the first known Ebola outbreak, which occurred in 1976 in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo). ⋯ Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak. Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance. At the same time, the relatively high person-to-person basic reproduction number suggests that Ebola would have been difficult to control through hospital-based infection control measures alone.
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Multicenter Study Comparative Study
The risk of HIV transmission within HIV-1 sero-discordant couples appears to vary across sub-Saharan Africa.
Representative and precise estimates for the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) from the infected to the uninfected partner in a stable HIV-1 sero-discordant couple (SDC) are not available. Nevertheless, quantifying HIV infectiousness is critical to understanding HIV epidemiology and implementing prevention programs. ⋯ Empirical measures from cohort studies appear to underestimate HIV infectiousness in SSA. The risk of HIV transmission among SDCs appears also to vary across SSA, and this may have contributed to the contrasting HIV epidemic trajectories in this continent.
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Randomized Controlled Trial Multicenter Study
Household transmission of influenza A and B in a school-based study of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
The effect of school-based non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on influenza A and B transmission in children's households has not been estimated in published literature. We use data from a large school-based cluster randomized trial of improved hand and respiratory hygiene measures to explore the secondary transmission of influenza A and B in households of laboratory confirmed influenza cases. Data were taken from the Pittsburgh Influenza Prevention Project, a cluster-randomized trial of NPIs conducted in ten Pittsburgh, PA elementary schools during the 2007-2008 influenza season. ⋯ Similarly, estimates for secondary attack rates and transmission probabilities for households with confirmed influenza A (0.31 and 0.22) were not significantly different from estimates from households with confirmed influenza B (0.25 and 0.20). While influenza A and B are thought to have different transmission characteristics, we find no significant differences in their transmissibility within households. Though our results suggest a potential effect, we found no statistically significant effect of school-based non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission in symptomatic children's homes.