Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Apr 2020
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.
Uncertainty is inherent to our knowledge about the state of the world yet often not communicated alongside scientific facts and numbers. In the "posttruth" era where facts are increasingly contested, a common assumption is that communicating uncertainty will reduce public trust. ⋯ Results show that whereas people do perceive greater uncertainty when it is communicated, we observed only a small decrease in trust in numbers and trustworthiness of the source, and mostly for verbal uncertainty communication. These results could help reassure all communicators of facts and science that they can be more open and transparent about the limits of human knowledge.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Mar 2020
Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak.
The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. ⋯ We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Mar 2020
Prophylactic and therapeutic remdesivir (GS-5734) treatment in the rhesus macaque model of MERS-CoV infection.
The continued emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) cases with a high case fatality rate stresses the need for the availability of effective antiviral treatments. Remdesivir (GS-5734) effectively inhibited MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV) replication in vitro, and showed efficacy against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-CoV in a mouse model. Here, we tested the efficacy of prophylactic and therapeutic remdesivir treatment in a nonhuman primate model of MERS-CoV infection, the rhesus macaque. ⋯ Therapeutic remdesivir treatment initiated 12 h postinoculation also provided a clear clinical benefit, with a reduction in clinical signs, reduced virus replication in the lungs, and decreased presence and severity of lung lesions. The data presented here support testing of the efficacy of remdesivir treatment in the context of a MERS clinical trial. It may also be considered for a wider range of coronaviruses, including the currently emerging novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Jan 2020
A portrait of wellbore leakage in northeastern British Columbia, Canada.
Oil and gas well leakage is of public concern primarily due to the perceived risks of aquifer contamination and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study examined well leakage data from the British Columbia Oil and Gas Commission (BC OGC) to identify leakage pathways and initially quantify incident rates of leakage and GHG emissions from leaking wells. Three types of leakage are distinguished: "surface casing vent flow" (SCVF), "outside the surface casing leakage" (OSCL), and "cap leakage" (CL). ⋯ This represents 10.8% of all wells in the assumed test population. However, it seems likely that wells drilled and/or abandoned before 2010 have unreported leakage. In BC, the total GHG emission from gas SCVF is estimated to reach about 75,000 t/y based on the existing inventory calculation; however, this number is likely higher due to underreporting.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Dec 2019
Bottleneck and selection in the germline and maternal age influence transmission of mitochondrial DNA in human pedigrees.
Heteroplasmy-the presence of multiple mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes in an individual-can lead to numerous mitochondrial diseases. The presentation of such diseases depends on the frequency of the heteroplasmic variant in tissues, which, in turn, depends on the dynamics of mtDNA transmissions during germline and somatic development. Thus, understanding and predicting these dynamics between generations and within individuals is medically relevant. ⋯ We show that heteroplasmic variants at intermediate frequencies can segregate for many generations in the human population, despite the strong germline bottleneck. We show that selection acts during germline development to keep the frequency of putatively deleterious variants from rising. Our findings have important applications for clinical genetics and genetic counseling.