Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
-
Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. · Dec 2001
Historical ArticleSpecific features of the spread of tuberculosis in Russia at the end of the 20th century.
This study shows the dynamics of the epidemiological process over the last decade and presents the causes of the deterioration in TB control. Explanations are given for the TB mortality rate increase, the trustworthiness of the data, and the factors influencing its formation. The present-day TB epidemiological situation in Russia is characterized by an increase in exogenous infection. ⋯ In the 1990s this trend has changed. TB infection spreads according to trends that are quite similar to those at the beginning of 20th century. The official TB morbidity rate does not reflect the true level of incidence because of undetected TB cases (approx. 10%).
-
Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. · Dec 2001
Did God create our universe? Theological reflections on the Big Bang, inflation, and quantum cosmologies.
The sciences and the humanities, including theology, form an epistemic hierarchy that ensures both constraint and irreducibility. At the same time, theological methodology is analogous to scientific methodology, though with several important differences. This model of interaction between science and theology can be seen illustrated in a consideration of the relation between contemporary cosmology (Big Bang cosmology, cosmic inflation, and quantum cosmology) and Christian systematic and natural theology. In light of developments in cosmology, the question of origins has become theologically less interesting than that of the cosmic evolution of a contingent universe.
-
Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. · Dec 2001
ReviewProduct liability forecasting for asbestos-related personal injury claims: a multidisciplinary approach.
This paper focuses on three aspects of forecasting models for asbestos-related disease/injuries relating to the Manville asbestos case: (1) The structure of forecasting models for asbestos-related personal injuries. (2) The epidemiologic evidence supporting the selected model structure and the constraints on the modeling assumptions imposed by that evidence. (3) The range of uncertainty associated with projections based on these forecasting models and issues relating to decision making under uncertainty.
-
India has the highest number of tuberculosis cases of any country in the world, and many of these cases are MDR TB. A combination of contributing factors has led to the current public health crisis: a failing National Tuberculosis Programme, denial and lack of compliance on the part of patients, lack of regulation of doctors in private practice, governmental policy failure and corruption, social and economic problems, and a growing HIV epidemic. This situation must be combatted on several fronts, including promoting social change; increasing government funding; seeking global aid; implementing DOTS, non-DOTS, and NGO programs; integrating TB and HIV programs; funding research; enacting regulatory legislation; and establishing continuing medical education programs among private practitioners.