American journal of epidemiology
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Unobserved confounding can seldom be ruled out with certainty in nonexperimental studies. Negative controls are sometimes used in epidemiologic practice to detect the presence of unobserved confounding. An outcome is said to be a valid negative control variable to the extent that it is influenced by unobserved confounders of the exposure effects on the outcome in view, although not directly influenced by the exposure. ⋯ In this paper, we go beyond the use of control outcomes to detect possible unobserved confounding and propose to use control outcomes in a simple but formal counterfactual-based approach to correct causal effect estimates for bias due to unobserved confounding. The proposed control outcome calibration approach is developed in the context of a continuous or binary outcome, and the control outcome and the exposure can be discrete or continuous. A sensitivity analysis technique is also developed, which can be used to assess the degree to which a violation of the main identifying assumption of the control outcome calibration approach might impact inference about the effect of the exposure on the outcome in view.
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Historical Article
Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.
Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). ⋯ During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.
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Review Meta Analysis
Red meat and processed meat consumption and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis.
High consumption of red meat and processed meat has been associated with increased risk of several chronic diseases. We conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence from prospective studies on red meat and processed meat consumption in relationship to all-cause mortality. Pertinent studies were identified by searching PubMed through May 2013 and by reviewing the reference lists of retrieved articles. ⋯ The summary relative risks of all-cause mortality for the highest versus the lowest category of consumption were 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 1.22; n = 6 studies) for unprocessed red meat, 1.23 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.28; n = 6 studies) for processed meat, and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.35; n = 5 studies) for total red meat. In a dose-response meta-analysis, consumption of processed meat and total red meat, but not unprocessed red meat, was statistically significantly positively associated with all-cause mortality in a nonlinear fashion. These results indicate that high consumption of red meat, especially processed meat, may increase all-cause mortality.
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Sleep and sedentary and active behaviors are linked to cardiovascular disease risk biomarkers, and across a 24-hour day, increasing time in 1 behavior requires decreasing time in another. We explored associations of reallocating time to sleep, sedentary behavior, or active behaviors with biomarkers. ⋯ Isotemporal substitution modeling indicated that, independent of potential confounders and time spent in other activities, beneficial associations (P < 0.05) with cardiovascular disease risk biomarkers were associated with the reallocation of 30 minutes/day of sedentary time with equal time of either sleep (2.2% lower insulin and 2.0% lower homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function), light-intensity activity (1.9% lower triglycerides, 2.4% lower insulin, and 2.2% lower homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function), or MVPA (2.4% smaller waist circumference, 4.4% higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 8.5% lower triglycerides, 1.7% lower glucose, 10.7% lower insulin, and 9.7% higher homeostasis model assessment of insulin sensitivity. These findings provide evidence that MVPA may be the most potent health-enhancing, time-dependent behavior, with additional benefit conferred from light-intensity activities and sleep duration when reallocated from sedentary time.
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Inflammation is implicated in preterm birth, but genetic studies of inflammatory genes have yielded inconsistent results. Maternal DNA from 1,646 participants in the Pregnancy, Infection, and Nutrition Cohort, enrolled in Orange and Wake counties, North Carolina (1995-2005), were genotyped for 432 tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 30 candidate genes. Gene-level and SNP associations were modeled within strata of genetic ancestry. ⋯ SNPs tagging a locus control region for IL4 and IL13 were associated with an increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth for European Americans (rs3091307; risk ratio = 1.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.4, 2.5). Although gene-level associations were detected only in European Americans, single-SNP associations among European and African Americans were often similar in direction, though estimated with less precision among African Americans. In conclusion, we identified novel associations between variants in the natural killer cell immune pathway and prematurity in this biracial US population.