American journal of epidemiology
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Conventional confidence intervals reflect uncertainty due to random error but omit uncertainty due to biases, such as confounding, selection bias, and measurement error. Such uncertainty can be quantified, especially if the investigator has some idea of the amount of such bias. A traditional sensitivity analysis produces one or more point estimates for the exposure effect hypothetically adjusted for bias, but it does not provide a range of effect measures given the likely range of bias. ⋯ Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis, adjusting for possible confounding by smoking, led to an adjusted standardized mortality ratio of 1.43 (95% Monte Carlo limits: 1.15, 1.78). Bayesian results were similar (95% posterior limits: 1.13, 1.84). The authors believe that these types of analyses, which make explicit and quantify sources of uncertainty, should be more widely adopted by epidemiologists.
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Follow-up information on subsequent pregnancies after mifepristone (RU486)-induced abortion is scarce. The authors examined whether one mifepristone-induced first-trimester abortion affects the outcome of a subsequent wanted pregnancy. In a study conducted in 1998-2001 at antenatal clinics in Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai, China, the authors enrolled 4,925 women with no history of induced abortion, 4,931 women with one previous mifepristone-induced abortion, and 4,800 women with one previous surgical abortion and followed them through pregnancy and childbirth. ⋯ Although the mean birth weight of infants born to women with mifepristone abortion was 33 g (95% confidence interval: 17, 49) higher than that of infants born to women with no abortion, the frequencies of low birth weight and mean lengths of pregnancy were similar. There were no significant differences in risk of preterm delivery, frequency of low birth weight, or mean infant birth weight in the comparisons of women with previous mifepristone abortion and women with surgical abortion. This study suggests that one early abortion induced by mifepristone in nulliparous women has no adverse effects on the outcome of a subsequent pregnancy.
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This study investigated the relation between self-reported vaginal bleeding during pregnancy and preterm birth in a prospective cohort of 2,829 pregnant women enrolled from prenatal clinics between 1995 and 2000 in central North Carolina. The overall association between vaginal bleeding and preterm birth was modest (risk ratio (RR) = 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 1.6). Bleeding in the first trimester only was associated with earlier preterm birth (< or =34 weeks' gestation) (RR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1, 2.4) and preterm birth due to preterm premature rupture of the membranes (PPROM) (RR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1, 3.3). ⋯ In contrast, bleeding in the second trimester only, of a single episode, on a single day, and with less total blood loss was not associated with any category of preterm birth. Vaginal bleeding was not associated with preterm birth among African Amercians (RR = 1.2, 95% CI: 0.9, 1.7). This study indicates that more intense but not less intense bleeding is associated with earlier preterm birth and spontaneous preterm birth presenting as PPROM or preterm labor, and it suggests that bleeding is less predictive of preterm birth among African-American compared with White women.
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As myocardial infarction (MI) hospital fatalities decline, survivors are candidates for recurrent events. However, little is known about morbidity after MI and how it may have changed over time. The authors examined the incidence of sudden cardiac death and recurrent ischemic events post-MI to test the hypothesis that it has declined over time. ⋯ The temporal decline in both events was of similar magnitude; for an MI occurring in 1998 versus 1979, risk of subsequent recurrent ischemic events or sudden cardiac death declined by 24% (relative risk = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.93). Thus, in the community, recurrent ischemic events are frequent post-MI, while sudden cardiac death is less common. Their incidence declined over time, supporting the notion that contemporary treatments effectively improve outcomes after MI.