The Science of the total environment
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Sci. Total Environ. · Aug 2020
ReviewEvolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: A global health emergency.
According to data compiled by researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, more than two and half million cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by a newly discovered virus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have been confirmed on April 20, 2020 (Nature, 2020b). Since the emergence of this infectious disease in Asia (Wuhan, China) late last year, it has been subsequently span to every continent of the world except Antarctica (Rodríguez-Morales et al., 2020). ⋯ This review will be a summa of the key features of novel coronavirus (nCoV), the virus causing disease 2019 and the present epidemic situation worldwide up to April 20, 2020. It is expected that this record will play an important role to take more preventive measures for overcoming the challenges faced during this current pandemic.
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Sci. Total Environ. · Aug 2020
SutteARIMA: Short-term forecasting method, a case: Covid-19 and stock market in Spain.
This study aimed to predict the short-term of confirmed cases of covid-19 and IBEX in Spain by using SutteARIMA method. Confirmed data of Covid-19 in Spanish was obtained from Worldometer and Spain Stock Market data (IBEX 35) was data obtained from Yahoo Finance. Data started from 12 February 2020-09 April 2020 (the date on Covid-19 was detected in Spain). ⋯ Based on the results of ARIMA and SutteARIMA forecasting methods, it can be concluded that the SutteARIMA method is more suitable than ARIMA to calculate the daily forecasts of confirmed cases of Covid-19 and IBEX in Spain. The MAPE value of 0.036 (smaller than 0.03 compared to MAPE value of ARIMA) for confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Spain and was in the amount of 0.026 for IBEX stock. At the end of the analysis, this study used the SutteARIMA method, this study calculated daily forecasts of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Spain from 10 April 2020 until 12 April 2020 i.e. 158925; 164390; and 169969 and Spain Stock Market from 14 April 2020 until 16 April 2020 i.e. 7000.61; 6930.61; and 6860.62.
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Sci. Total Environ. · Aug 2020
Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran.
SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. ⋯ The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intra-provincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces.
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Sci. Total Environ. · Aug 2020
Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID.
This study has two goals. The first is to explain the geo-environmental determinants of the accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 that is generating a high level of deaths. The second is to suggest a strategy to cope with future epidemic threats similar to COVID-19 having an accelerated viral infectivity in society. ⋯ Overall, then, transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, such as COVID-19, is due to systemic causes: general factors that are the same for all regions (e.g., biological characteristics of virus, incubation period, etc.) and specific factors which are different for each region and/or city (e.g., complex interaction between air pollution, meteorological conditions and biological characteristics of viral infectivity) and health level of individuals (habits, immune system, age, sex, etc.). Lessons learned for COVID-19 in the case study here suggest that a proactive strategy to cope with future epidemics is also to apply especially an environmental and sustainable policy based on reduction of levels of air pollution mainly in hinterland and polluting cities- (having low wind speed, high percentage of moisture and number of fog days) -that seem to have an environment that foster a fast transmission dynamics of viral infectivity in society. Hence, in the presence of polluting industrialization in regions that can trigger the mechanism of air pollution-to-human transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, this study must conclude that a comprehensive strategy to prevent future epidemics similar to COVID-19 has to be also designed in environmental and socioeconomic terms, that is also based on sustainability science and environmental science, and not only in terms of biology, medicine, healthcare and health sector.
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At the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan city, China. As of April 15, 2020, >1.9 million COVID-19 cases were confirmed worldwide, including >120,000 deaths. There is an urgent need to monitor and predict COVID-19 prevalence to control this spread more effectively. ⋯ This study shows that ARIMA models are suitable for predicting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the future. The results of the analysis can shed light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and give an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions. Besides, the prediction of COVID-19 prevalence trends of Italy, Spain, and France can help take precautions and policy formulation for this epidemic in other countries.