Anaesthesia and intensive care
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Anaesth Intensive Care · Jan 2023
Utility of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit prognostic model in predicting outcomes in an Australian health system.
The Royal College of Anaesthetists was commissioned by the United Kingdom Health Quality Partnership to conduct the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit of England and Wales (NELA), to compare outcomes of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in order to promote quality improvement. Prior to 2016 there were minimal data for emergency laparotomy patients in Australia. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the utility and applicability of the NELA model in a tertiary centre in Western Australia. ⋯ The NELA model had a good ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors (AUROC 0.892, 95% confidence intervals 0.854 to 0.93, P <0.001). However, the model was not perfectly calibrated, with the predicted risks tending to overestimate the observed risks of mortality, especially when the predicted risks were >50%. A high NELA-predicted risk remained significantly associated with mortality after adjusting for other covariates, including sepsis and plasma lactate concentration, suggesting that it is a reliable screening tool for identifying high-risk patients requiring emergency laparotomy.