Epidemiology and infection
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Comparative Study Historical Article
A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning.
Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. ⋯ Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.
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Strategies to lessen the impact of pandemic influenza include behavioural modifications of the general public regarding medical care, personal hygiene and protection, and social distancing. We conducted a telephone survey of Beijing residents to evaluate potential behavioural changes in the general public in the event of an influenza pandemic occurring. We used a two-stage Mitofsky-Waksberg telephone survey of Beijing residents aged 15 years. ⋯ Moreover, 26% of the participants (95% CI 21-32) would stockpile food or water, and 55% (95% CI 49-61) would stockpile medicines. Some of the behavioural changes reported by Beijing participants might help to alleviate the damage caused by a potential pandemic. However, increased use of medical care at referral hospitals will further strain the healthcare system during a pandemic.
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To determine the incidence, risk factors for, and the influence of bloodstream infections (BSIs) on mortality of patients in intensive-care units (ICUs), prospectively collected data from all patients with a stay in an ICU >48 h, during a 1-year period, were analysed. Of 572 patients, 148 developed a total of 232 BSI episodes (incidence 16.3 episodes/1000 patient-days). ⋯ The severity of illness on admission, as estimated by APACHE II score (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.1, P<0.001), the presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR 3.57, 95% CI 1.92-6.64, P<0.001), and a history of diabetes mellitus (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.36-4.11, P=0.002) were risk factors for the occurrence of BSI whereas the development of an ICU-acquired BSI was an independent risk factor for death (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.11-2.78, P=0.015). Finally, the severity of organ dysfunction on the day of the first BSI episode, as estimated by SOFA score, and the level of serum albumin, independently affected the outcome (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.22-1.7, P<0.001 and OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.97, P=0.04 respectively).
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Recent information on epidemiology and management of herpes zoster (HZ) and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), a painful complication of HZ, is scarce. The objective of this study was to document the burden of HZ and PHN in the United Kingdom. This retrospective analysis of the UK General Practice Research Database aimed to estimate HZ incidence and proportion of HZ patients developing PHN and to assess management costs in immunocompetent individuals aged 50 years. ⋯ Mean direct cost was pound103 per HZ patient and pound341 and pound397 per PHN episode (1- and 3-month definition respectively). Both HZ and PHN costs increased markedly with pain severity. This study confirms that HZ and PHN are frequent and costly diseases in the United Kingdom.
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Lack of access to safe water and sanitation contributes to diarrhoea moribidity and mortality in developing countries. We evaluated the impact of household water treatment, latrines, shallow wells, and rainwater harvesting on diarrhoea incidence in rural Kenyan children. ⋯ Diarrhoea risk was higher among shallow well users (RR 1.78, 95% CI 1.12-2.83). Chlorinating stored water, latrines, and rainwater use all decreased diarrhoea risk; combined interventions may have increased health impact.