BMJ : British medical journal
-
Meta Analysis
Prediction model to estimate presence of coronary artery disease: retrospective pooled analysis of existing cohorts.
To develop prediction models that better estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. ⋯ Updated prediction models including age, sex, symptoms, and cardiovascular risk factors allow for accurate estimation of the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Addition of coronary calcium scores to the prediction models improves the estimates.
-
To identify existing prediction models for the risk of development of type 2 diabetes and to externally validate them in a large independent cohort. ⋯ Most basic prediction models can identify people at high risk of developing diabetes in a time frame of five to 10 years. Models including biomarkers classified cases slightly better than basic ones. Most models overestimated the actual risk of diabetes. Existing prediction models therefore perform well to identify those at high risk, but cannot sufficiently quantify actual risk of future diabetes.
-
To evaluate the performance of the QRISK2-2011 score for predicting the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice and to compare it with earlier versions of the model and a National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence version of the Framingham equation. ⋯ QRISK2-2011 seems to be a useful model, with good discriminative and calibration properties when compared with the NICE version of the Framingham equation. Furthermore, based on current high risk thresholds, concerns exist on the clinical usefulness of the NICE version of the Framingham equation for identifying women at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease. At current thresholds the NICE version of the Framingham equation has no clinical benefit in either men or women.
-
To assess the accuracy of malaria diagnosis and treatment at primary level clinics in Afghanistan. ⋯ Despite a much lower incidence of malaria in Afghanistan than in Africa, fever was substantially misdiagnosed as malaria in this south Asian setting. Inaccuracy was attributable to false positive laboratory diagnoses of malaria and the clinicians' disregard of negative slide results. Rare but potentially fatal cases of falciparum malaria were not detected, emphasising the potential role of rapid diagnostic tests. Microscopy increased the proportion of patients treated with antibiotics producing a trade-off between overtreatment with malaria drugs and probable overtreatment with antibiotics.