BMJ : British medical journal
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To compare stratified event rates from randomized controlled trials with predicted event rates from models developed in observational data, and assess their ability to accurately capture observed rates of thromboembolism and major bleeding for patients treated with dabigatran or warfarin as part of routine care. ⋯ Estimated rates of thromboembolism under dabigatran or warfarin treatment in randomized controlled trials were close to observed rates in routine care patients. However, rates of major bleeding were underestimated. Models developed in routine care patients can provide accurate, tailored estimates of risk and benefit under alternative treatment to enhance patient centered care.