Das Gesundheitswesen
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Das Gesundheitswesen · Oct 1995
[The Lee-Carter model of the prognosis of mortality in Germany. Berlin Public Health Research Group--partial project "Goals and Goal Indicators for Public Health in East and West Berlin"].
A model for forecasting mortality developed by Lee and Carter is applied to data of West Germany. The logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved mortality index using the singular value decomposition method. The forecasts are based on projections of all individual trends of the mortality rates. Applied to life expectancy at birth between 1969 and 1992 the model implies an increase of 2.2 years in life expectancy for men and 2.4 years for women in 2002.
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Das Gesundheitswesen · May 1995
[Frequency analysis for promoting public health goals--III: Potential abbreviation of longevity].
The article presents different mathematical algorithms intending to quantify the "potential years of life lost" based on life table models, and on real age-structured populations, respectively. Applying these algorithms to accident and cardiovascular mortality data from Berlin (West) demonstrates their individual and specific relevance.
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Das Gesundheitswesen · Apr 1995
[Frequency analysis for achieving health goals--II: Analysis of mortality tables for cause of death, expected mortality].
The article gives algorithms to calculate mean ages at death for specific causes, based on life table models. Parameters of interest are death due to a specific cause, dying after the "elimination" of the specific cause, or the transition into a "new" structure of mortality when a specific cause of death vanishes. The setbacks of widely used calculations are discussed in this context. ⋯ The estimated impact on life expectancy varies according to both the mathematical model and the specific cause of death: differences are negligible in mortality due to accidents, whereas the results differ considerably in cardiovascular causes of death. The algorithm suggested allows to constrain the calculations to specific age groups. Topics such as "avoidable death" and "health objectives" have to be aware of these different methods.
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Das Gesundheitswesen · Apr 1995
[Medical aid according to the asylum application regulation--a report of experiences after the first year].
In 1993 the Law Concerning Social and Medical Aid for People Asking for Political Asylum in the Federal Republic of Germany (Asylbewerberleistungsgesetz) was promulgated. In so far the main political aims of the new law are concerned it is to say that in the case of dental treatment they have failed at least in the first year. The author believes it to be more serious from a medical point of view that there is a tendency towards a medicine having two different "classes".