The American surgeon
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The American surgeon · Dec 2012
Mortality factors in geriatric blunt trauma patients: creation of a highly predictive statistical model for mortality using 50,765 consecutive elderly trauma admissions from the National Sample Project.
Elderly patients are at high risk for mortality after injury. We hypothesized that trauma benchmarking efforts would benefit from development of a geriatric-specific model for risk-adjusted analyses of trauma center outcomes. A total of 57,973 records of elderly patients (age older than 65 years), which met our selection criteria, were submitted to the National Trauma Database and included within the National Sample Project between 2003 and 2006. ⋯ Spline analyses demonstrated that elderly patients appear to be less likely to tolerate relative hypotension with higher observed mortality at initial systolic blood pressures of 90 to 130 mmHg. Although the TQIP model includes a single age component, these data suggest that each variable needs to be adjusted for age to more accurately predict mortality in the elderly. Clearly, a separate geriatric model for predicting outcomes is not only warranted, but necessary.