Anaesthesia
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The incidence of an anaesthetic drug error can be directly observed in large trials. In an alternative approach, we developed a probabilistic mathematical model in which the anaesthetist is modelled as a 'fallible entity' who makes repeated drug administration choices during an operation. This fallibility was factored in the model as an initial 'intrinsic error rate'. ⋯ The practice implications of our modelling include: exercising caution or avoiding starting work if under par; added vigilance in unfamiliar environments; keeping anaesthetic recipes simple; and recognising that operation durations > 5-6 h constitute a time of exaggerated risk. These implications are testable predictions in observational trials. If validated, our model could serve as a potential research tool to investigate the impact of safety interventions on the rate of intrinsic error using simulation.