American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine
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Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. · Jan 2021
Clinical TrialBACES Score for Predicting Mortality in Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Pulmonary Disease.
Rationale: Because the prognosis of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease varies, a scoring system predicting mortality is needed. Objectives: We aimed to develop a novel scoring system to predict mortality among patients with nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease. Methods: We included patients age ≥20 years with newly diagnosed nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease, with Mycobacterium avium, M. intracellulare, M. abscessus subsp. abscessus, or M. abscessus subsp. massiliense. ⋯ Harrell's C-index for the BACES score was 0.812 (95% confidence interval, 0.786-0.837) in the derivation cohort and 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.797-0.911) in the validation cohort, indicating excellent discrimination performance. The estimated 5-year risk of mortality was 1.2% with BACES score 0 and 82.9% with BACES score 5. Conclusions: We developed the BACES score, which could accurately predict mortality among patients with nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease caused by M. avium, M. intracellulare, M. abscessus subsp. abscessus, or M. abscessus subsp. massiliense.