Journal of travel medicine
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As antimicrobials increase the risk of acquiring multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria, unnecessary antibiotics should be avoided for travellers' diarrhoea (TD). Antibiotics are recommended in TD accompanied by fever or incapacitation (TD justifying use of antibiotics, TDjuAB). Seeking tools for reducing antibiotic use, we explored factors predisposing to TDjuAB and scrutinized antibiotic treatment among those with TDjuAB [TDjuAB(+) subgroup] and those with diarrhoea not justifying antibiotics [TDjuAB(-) subgroup]. ⋯ The first to analyse risk factors for TDjuAB, our study presents RRRs for demographic and behavioural factors and for various pathogens. Only less than half of those in the TDjuAB(+) group took antibiotics, which demonstrates that most cases meeting the current criteria recover without antimicrobial treatment.
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There is concern about the risk of yellow fever (YF) establishment in Asia, owing to rising numbers of urban outbreaks in endemic countries and globalisation. Following an outbreak in Angola in 2016, YF cases were introduced into China. Prior to this, YF had never been recorded in Asia, despite climatic suitability and the presence of mosquitoes. An outbreak in Asia could result in widespread fatalities and huge economic impact. Therefore, quantifying the potential risk of YF outbreaks in Asia is a public health priority. ⋯ Despite the rise in air travel, we found low support for travel patterns between YF endemic countries and Asia resulting in autochthonous transmission during 2016. This supports the historic absence of YF in Asia and suggests it could be due to a limited number of introductions in previous years. Future increases in travel volumes or YF incidence can increase the number of introductions and the risk of autochthonous transmission. Given the high proportion of asymptomatic or mild infections and the challenges of YF surveillance, our model can be used to estimate the introduction and outbreak risk and can provide useful information to surveillance systems.