Journal of travel medicine
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Comparative Study
Discrepancies in dengue burden estimates: A comparative analysis of reported cases and Global Burden of Disease Study, 2010-2019.
Dengue is a significant mosquito-borne disease. Several studies have utilized estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to assess the global, regional or national burden of dengue over time. However, our recent investigation suggests that GBD's estimates for dengue cases in Taiwan are unrealistically high. The current study extends the scope to compare reported dengue cases with GBD estimates across 30 high-burden countries and territories, aiming to assess the accuracy and interpretability of the GBD's dengue estimates. ⋯ This study reveals substantial discrepancies between GBD estimates and reported dengue cases, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive analysis in areas with pronounced disparities. The failure of GBD estimates to represent the considerable annual fluctuations in dengue outbreaks highlights the critical need for improvement in disease burden estimation methodologies for dengue.
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Prolonged diarrhoea is common amongst returning travellers and is often caused by intestinal protozoa. However, the epidemiology of travel-associated illness caused by protozoal pathogens is not well described. ⋯ This analysis provides new insights into the epidemiology and clinical significance of four intestinal protozoa that can cause morbidity in international travellers. These data might help optimize pretravel advice and post-travel management of patients with travel-associated prolonged gastrointestinal illnesses. This analysis reinforces the importance of international travel-related surveillance to identify sentinel cases and areas where protozoal infections might be undetected or underreported.
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The prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Trichomonas vaginalis was determined among 431 pregnant Syrian refugee women seeking antenatal care in Lebanon. Low prevalence at 0.5% for chlamydia, 0.2% for trichomoniasis and 0.0% for gonorrhoeae was detected, suggesting a low burden of sexually transmitted infection in this population.
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The international flight network creates multiple routes by which pathogens can quickly spread across the globe. In the early stages of infectious disease outbreaks, analyses using flight passenger data to identify countries at risk of importing the pathogen are common and can help inform disease control efforts. A challenge faced in this modelling is that the latest aviation statistics (referred to as contemporary data) are typically not immediately available. Therefore, flight patterns from a previous year are often used (referred to as historical data). We explored the suitability of historical data for predicting the spatial spread of emerging epidemics. ⋯ The use of historical flight data as a proxy in epidemic models is an acceptable practice, except in rare, large epidemics that lead to substantial disruptions to international travel.