Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine
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Gun-related crime continues to be an urgent public health and safety problem in cities across the US. A key question is: how are firearms diverted from the legal retail market into the hands of gun offenders? With close to 8 million legal firearm transaction records in California (2010-2020) linked to over 380,000 records of recovered crime guns (2010-2021), we employ supervised machine learning to predict which firearms are used in crimes shortly after purchase. Specifically, using random forest (RF) with stratified under-sampling, we predict any crime gun recovery within a year (0.2% of transactions) and violent crime gun recovery within a year (0.03% of transactions). ⋯ Among transactions identified as extremely risky, e.g., transactions with a score of 0.98 and above, 74% (35/47 in the test data) are recovered within a year. The most important predictive features include purchaser age and caliber size. This study suggests the potential utility of transaction records combined with machine learning to identify firearms at the highest risk for diversion and criminal use soon after purchase.
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Direct and indirect gun violence exposure (GVE) is associated with a broad range of detrimental health effects. However, much of this research has examined the effects of a single type of GVE (e.g., being shot) on discrete outcomes (e.g., daily pain, PTSD). Since people may experience numerous types of GVE (e.g., being threatened with a gun and hearing gunshots in their neighborhood) with broad effects on their well-being, we study the association between four types of direct and indirect GVE and five aspects of quality of life (overall, physical, psychological, social, and environmental). ⋯ Cumulative GVE was also associated with significant decreases in overall physical, psychological, social, and environmental quality of life. For example, individuals with four GVEs had an adjusted average physical quality of life that was 11.14 points lower and environmental quality of life that was 7.18 points lower than individuals with no GVE. Decreasing gun violence is a critical component of improving community health and well-being.