Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine
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Gun-related crime continues to be an urgent public health and safety problem in cities across the US. A key question is: how are firearms diverted from the legal retail market into the hands of gun offenders? With close to 8 million legal firearm transaction records in California (2010-2020) linked to over 380,000 records of recovered crime guns (2010-2021), we employ supervised machine learning to predict which firearms are used in crimes shortly after purchase. Specifically, using random forest (RF) with stratified under-sampling, we predict any crime gun recovery within a year (0.2% of transactions) and violent crime gun recovery within a year (0.03% of transactions). ⋯ Among transactions identified as extremely risky, e.g., transactions with a score of 0.98 and above, 74% (35/47 in the test data) are recovered within a year. The most important predictive features include purchaser age and caliber size. This study suggests the potential utility of transaction records combined with machine learning to identify firearms at the highest risk for diversion and criminal use soon after purchase.
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Direct and indirect gun violence exposure (GVE) is associated with a broad range of detrimental health effects. However, much of this research has examined the effects of a single type of GVE (e.g., being shot) on discrete outcomes (e.g., daily pain, PTSD). Since people may experience numerous types of GVE (e.g., being threatened with a gun and hearing gunshots in their neighborhood) with broad effects on their well-being, we study the association between four types of direct and indirect GVE and five aspects of quality of life (overall, physical, psychological, social, and environmental). ⋯ Cumulative GVE was also associated with significant decreases in overall physical, psychological, social, and environmental quality of life. For example, individuals with four GVEs had an adjusted average physical quality of life that was 11.14 points lower and environmental quality of life that was 7.18 points lower than individuals with no GVE. Decreasing gun violence is a critical component of improving community health and well-being.
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Evidence has documented the effects of place on perinatal outcomes, but less is known about the sociopolitical mechanisms, such as gentrification, that shape neighborhood context and produce spatialized inequities in adverse birth outcomes. Leveraging a diverse sample in California, we assessed the associations between gentrification and birth outcomes: preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age, and low birth weight. Gentrification was measured using the Freeman method and the Displacement and Gentrification Typology. ⋯ While Displacement and Gentrification Typology-measured gentrification was consistently associated with greater odds of adverse outcomes, Freeman-measured gentrification was associated with slightly lower odds of small-for-gestational-age and low birth weight. Furthermore, gentrification was associated with birth outcome odds across multiple racial and ethnic groups, but the directions and magnitudes of the associations varied depending on the gentrification assessment methodology and the outcome assessed. Results demonstrate that gentrification plays a role in shaping adverse birth outcomes in California.
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Using 2022 data from 600 adults (≥ 60 years) in Porto, Portugal, we explored the association between housing insecurity and various health outcomes. We examined housing conditions, affordability, and stability in relation to loneliness, quality of life, cognitive function, perception of healthy ageing, and sleep using regression models. Older adults without house heating (β = 2.293; 95%CI = 0.753, 3.833), with leaks/dampness/rot (β = 3.741; 1.818, 5.664), insufficient daylight (β = 2.787; 0.095, 5.479), living in neighborhoods with noise (β = 1.793, 0.280 to 3.305), pollution/grime (β = 2.580; 0.746, 4.414), and violence/crime/vandalism (β = 3.940; 1.723, 6.157), who faced housing cost overburden (β = 2.001; 0.426, 3.577), eviction (β = 12.651; 0.852, 24.450), and moved frequently (β = 4.129; 1.542, 6.716) exhibited higher levels of loneliness. ⋯ Furthermore, those living in neighborhoods with pollution/grime (OR = 0.494; 0.322, 0.756) and violence/crime/vandalism (OR = 0.477; 0.284, 0.801), those in social housing (OR = 0.728; 0.575, 0.922), and those who moved frequently (OR = 0.475; 0.257, 0.879) reported lower levels of perceived healthy ageing. Insufficient sleep was more common among residents in social housing (OR = 2.155; 1.102, 4.213), while poor sleep quality was least likely both among those living in social housing (OR = 0.445; 0.220, 0.900) and affordable housing (OR = 0.381; 0.162, 0.896). Good quality, stable, and affordable housing seems crucial for healthy ageing.
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The Care Block of Bogotá, Colombia, is an urban program that offers services for low-income unpaid caregivers. This study aimed to (i) characterize unpaid caregivers' subjective well-being, mental health symptoms, physical activity levels, and use of public spaces linked to the Care Block; (ii) identify caregivers' perceived built and social environment facilitators and barriers to accessing the Care Block facility; and (iii) document the community-led advocacy process to improve the Care Block program. The quantitative component included a subjective well-being and mental health symptoms survey, and the System for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities (SOPARC) instrument. ⋯ The caregivers highlighted education, physical activity services, and integration of facilities as facilitators to accessing the Care Block program. Poor quality and lack of sidewalks and roads, limited personal safety, and the risk of pedestrian-vehicle collisions were identified as barriers. Virtual Reality sparked compelling dialogue between participants and stakeholders, allowing stakeholders to reflect on an urban program facilitating unpaid care work.