Epidemiol Prev
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about two months after the end of the lockdown imposed for the containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, the contagion dynamics in the Tuscany Region (Central Italy) have been assessed from the beginning of the emergency to the end of June through a compartmental model, and future medium-long term projections have been produced. ⋯ the estimated trend of R0(t) is suggestive of a strong effect of the lockdown in Tuscany and of a mild increase of the contagion potentially attributable to the easing of the containment measures. Medium-long term projections unequivocally indicate that the danger of a new epidemic wave has not been averted.
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the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in WHO European Region was reported at the end of January 2020 and, from that moment, the epidemic has been speeding up and rapidly spreading across Europe. The health, social, and economic consequences of the pandemic are difficult to evaluate, since there are many scientific uncertainties and unknowns. ⋯ despite the variety of approaches to calculate excess mortality, this study provides an original methodological approach to profile municipalities with excess deaths accounting for spatial and temporal uncertainty.
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to describe the overall mortality increase in the provinces of Milan and Lodi - area covered by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan - during the COVID-19 epidemic in the first four months of 2020, compare it with the same time period in the years 2016-2019, and evaluate to what extent the mortality can be directly attributed to the outbreak. ⋯ evaluation of overall mortality in the provinces of Milan and Lodi during the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic showed a significant excess compared to the first 4 months of the years 2016-2019, mainly in the population over 60 years of age. However, this excess cannot be completely attributed directly to COVID-19 itself. This phenomenon was more intense in the Lodi ASST, with daily deaths up to 5 times higher than expected.
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Comparative Study
[Excess mortality risk in nursing care homes before and during the COVID-19 outbreak in Mantua and Cremona provinces (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy)].
1. to evaluate mortality risk excess in the population residing in nursing care homes (NCHs) compared to non-NCHs before the COVID-19 outbreak; 2. to verify if the outbreak modified risk excess; 3. to estimate the COVID-19 impact; 4. to ascertain incidence-mortality relationship. ⋯ the NCH population experienced an excess risk mortality compared to non-NCH before the COVID-19; this excess increased during the outbreak. In 2020, in NCHs the risk was more than double compared to the 2018 risk, while in non-NCHs it rose approximately by 60%. The gap between NCHs/non-NCHs COVID-19 impact was higher in Cremona than in Mantua.
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to evaluate the effects of a pre-existing condition of diabetes and of the use of antidiabetic drugs in the Sicilian population on different outcomes of the COVID-19 disease. ⋯ data availability made it possible to monitor the occurrence and explore some of the characteristics of the cases with COVID-19 in Sicily. Diabetes does not seem to represent a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Sicily, while previous diabetes condition seems to determine greater risk of hospitalization, treatment in intensive care, and lethality among over 80. There are also gender differences with almost double risks in women for hospitalization and intensive care only. Among the antidiabetic drugs investigated, there was a risk for hospitalization and intensive care while protective for deaths. This study represents an important tool for the activation of intervention programmes in the area aimed at populations with greater health risk deriving from the effects of this new pandemic.