Epidemiol Prev
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since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of developing a serological test has emerged and a debate on test accuracy and reliability become an issue widely discussed in the media. The importance of communication during this pandemic has been strongly underlined by public health experts, epidemiologists, media expert, psychologists, sociologists. In the case of serological tests, there are several aspects that have to be considered: why we perform the test, what population is tested, which are the parameters conditioning the results and their interpretation. ⋯ the main applications of the serological test in the epidemic contest are: to study the seroprevalence of the virus antibodies in the general population; to screen the healthcare workers for the early identification of contagious subjects' health care settings and to screen the general population in order to identify new incident cases. In the first two cases, seroprevalence study and screening of a high-risk population, the consequences of the uncertainty associated to the statistics are already accounted for in the first situation, or are overcome by repeating the screening on the healthcare workers, and using the molecular test to verify the presence of the virus in those tested positive. The case of screening of general population is more complex and of major interest for the implication it may have on individual behaviours and on the implementation of public health interventions by the political decision makers. A positive result has, per se, no practical value for individuals since the probability of being really infected by the virus is low. The uncertainty associated with the different estimates (sensitivity, specificity and disease prevalence) play a double role: it is a key factor in defining the informative content of the test result and it might guide the individual actions and the public policy decisions.
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to investigate the role of gender, age, province of residence, and nursing home residency on the risk of death for residents in the Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) Region (Northern Italy) tested positive for Covid-19, considering recovery as a competing event. The secondary objective is to describe the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic in FVG and in the Regions of Northern and Central Italy in terms of incidence and mortality compared to the national data. ⋯ while other Northern Regions and autonomous Provinces show higher standardized incidence and mortality compared with Italy, FVG and Veneto do not. In FVG, male gender and age are important determinants of death while there is no evidence that the condition of guest in a nursing home increases the sub-hazard of death.
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Comparative Study
COVID-19 in Africa: the little we know and the lot we ignore.
COVID has stirred up an information deluge that challenges our capacity to absorb and make sense of data. In this unrelenting flow of information, Africa has been largely off the radar, escaping the attention of the scientific literature and the media. International agencies have been the exception: despite the still low numbers of cases and deaths, they have voiced concerns, often in catastrophic terms, on the health, economic and social impacts of COVID in African countries. ⋯ The paper concludes with the recommendation that affected communities should be engaged in the response, to maintain or build trust. A lesson from the Ebola outbreak of a few years ago was that epidemiologists and community leaders learned, after initial difficulties, how to dialogue and work together. A summary update of the pandemic has been added, in view of its fast evolution.
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the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in WHO European Region was reported at the end of January 2020 and, from that moment, the epidemic has been speeding up and rapidly spreading across Europe. The health, social, and economic consequences of the pandemic are difficult to evaluate, since there are many scientific uncertainties and unknowns. ⋯ despite the variety of approaches to calculate excess mortality, this study provides an original methodological approach to profile municipalities with excess deaths accounting for spatial and temporal uncertainty.
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to describe the overall mortality increase in the provinces of Milan and Lodi - area covered by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan - during the COVID-19 epidemic in the first four months of 2020, compare it with the same time period in the years 2016-2019, and evaluate to what extent the mortality can be directly attributed to the outbreak. ⋯ evaluation of overall mortality in the provinces of Milan and Lodi during the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic showed a significant excess compared to the first 4 months of the years 2016-2019, mainly in the population over 60 years of age. However, this excess cannot be completely attributed directly to COVID-19 itself. This phenomenon was more intense in the Lodi ASST, with daily deaths up to 5 times higher than expected.