Bmc Med
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Forecasting healthcare demand is essential in epidemic settings, both to inform situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust across time and locations. During the COVID-19 pandemic in England, it is an ongoing concern that demand for hospital care for COVID-19 patients in England will exceed available resources. ⋯ Assuming no change in current admissions is rarely better than including at least a trend. Using confirmed COVID-19 cases as a predictor can improve admissions forecasts in some scenarios, but this is variable and depends on the ability to make consistently good case forecasts. However, ensemble forecasts can make forecasts that make consistently more accurate forecasts across time and locations. Given minimal requirements on data and computation, our admissions forecasting ensemble could be used to anticipate healthcare needs in future epidemic or pandemic settings.
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Childhood abuse and neglect have been associated with premenstrual disorders (PMDs), including premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD). However, the associations of other adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and the cumulative number of ACEs with PMDs remain to be explored. ⋯ Our findings suggest that childhood adverse experiences are associated with PMDs in a dose-dependent manner. If confirmed by prospective data, our findings support the importance of early intervention for girls exposed to ACEs to minimize risks of PMDs and other morbidities in adulthood.
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HRV has mostly shown associations with systolic dysfunction and more recently, with diastolic dysfunction in Heart failure (HF) patients. But the role of sympathetic nervous system in changes of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and new-onset HF has not been extensively studied. ⋯ Indices of HRV were associated with worse systolic function in men but mainly with improvement in LA size in women. Higher HRV was associated with higher risk of new-onset HF in men. Our findings highlight potential sex differences in autonomic function underlying cardiac dysfunction and heart failure in the general population.
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In countries with high COVID-19 vaccination rates the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant resulted in rapidly increasing case numbers. This study evaluated the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) coupled with alternative vaccination strategies to determine feasible Delta mitigation strategies for Australia. We aimed to understand the potential effectiveness of high vaccine coverage levels together with NPI physical distancing activation and to establish the benefit of adding children and adolescents to the vaccination program. Border closure limited SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia; however, slow vaccination uptake resulted in Delta outbreaks in the two largest cities and may continue as international travel increases. ⋯ Delta variant outbreaks may be managed by vaccine coverage rates higher than 80% and activation of moderate NPI measures, preventing healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed. If 90% coverage cannot be achieved, including young children and adolescents in the vaccination program coupled with activation of moderate NPIs appears necessary to suppress future COVID-19 Delta-like transmission and prevent intensive care unit surge capacity from being exceeded.
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Randomized Controlled Trial Multicenter Study
A single-oral bolus of 100,000 IU of cholecalciferol at hospital admission did not improve outcomes in the COVID-19 disease: the COVID-VIT-D-a randomised multicentre international clinical trial.
Vitamin D status has been implicated in COVID-19 disease. The objective of the COVID-VIT-D trial was to investigate if an oral bolus of cholecalciferol (100,000 IU) administered at hospital admission influences the outcomes of moderate-severe COVID-19 disease. In the same cohort, the association between baseline serum calcidiol levels with the same outcomes was also analysed. ⋯ The randomised clinical trial showed the administration of an oral bolus of 100,000 IU of cholecalciferol at hospital admission did not improve the outcomes of the COVID-19 disease. A cohort analysis showed that serum calcidiol at hospital admission was associated with outcomes.