Scientific reports
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Determining the level of social distancing, quantified here as the reduction in daily number of social contacts per person, i.e. the daily contact rate, needed to maintain control of the COVID-19 epidemic and not exceed acute bed capacity in case of future epidemic waves, is important for future planning of relaxing of strict social distancing measures. This work uses mathematical modelling to simulate the levels of COVID-19 in North East London (NEL) and inform the level of social distancing necessary to protect the public and the healthcare demand from future COVID-19 waves. We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model describing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in NEL, calibrated to data on hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19, hospital discharges and in-hospital deaths in NEL during the first epidemic wave. ⋯ This scenario is associated with significantly increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, and acute COVID-19 care demand is likely to require significant scaling down of the usual operation of the health and care system and should be avoided. Our findings suggest that to avoid future COVID-19 waves and to stay within the acute bed capacity of the NEL health and care system, maintaining social distancing in NEL is advised with a view to limiting the average number of social interactions in the population. Increasing the level of social interaction beyond the limits described in this work could result in future COVID-19 waves that will likely exceed the acute bed capacity in the system, and depending on the strength of the resurgence may require additional lockdown measures.
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The lack of coronavirus-specific antiviral drugs has instigated multiple drug repurposing studies to redirect previously approved medicines for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus behind the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. A recent, large-scale, retrospective clinical study showed that famotidine, when administered at a high dose to hospitalized COVID-19 patients, reduced the rates of intubation and mortality. A separate, patient-reported study associated famotidine use with improvements in mild to moderate symptoms such as cough and shortness of breath. ⋯ Leveraging a series of biophysical and enzymatic assays, we show that famotidine neither binds with nor inhibits the functions of 3CLpro and PLpro. Similarly, no direct antiviral activity of famotidine was observed at concentrations of up to 200 µM, when tested against SARS-CoV-2 in two different cell lines, including a human cell line originating from lungs, a primary target of COVID-19. These results rule out famotidine as a direct-acting inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2 replication and warrant further investigation of its molecular mechanism of action in the context of COVID-19.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the world with health and economic wreckage. Precise estimates of adverse outcomes from COVID-19 could have led to better allocation of healthcare resources and more efficient targeted preventive measures, including insight into prioritizing how to best distribute a vaccination. We developed MLHO (pronounced as melo), an end-to-end Machine Learning framework that leverages iterative feature and algorithm selection to predict Health Outcomes. ⋯ We broadly describe the clusters of features that were utilized in modeling and their relative influence for predicting each outcome. Our results demonstrated that while demographic variables (namely age) are important predictors of adverse outcomes after a COVID-19 infection, the incorporation of the past clinical records are vital for a reliable prediction model. As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds around the world, adaptable and interpretable machine learning frameworks (like MLHO) are crucial to improve our readiness for confronting the potential future waves of COVID-19, as well as other novel infectious diseases that may emerge.
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In 2016, undernutrition, as manifested in childhood stunting, wasting, and underweight were estimated to cause over 1.0 million deaths, 3.9% of years of life lost, and 3.8% of disability-adjusted life years globally. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using the 2006-2018 cross-sectional nationally representative demographic and health surveys (DHS) data and to explore the sources of regional variations. Anthropometric measurements of children 0-59 months of age from DHS in 62 LMICs worldwide were used. ⋯ Subgroup analyses suggested that Western Africa, Southern Asia, and Southeastern Asia had a substantially higher estimated prevalence of undernutrition than global average estimates. In multivariable meta-regression, a combination of human development index and United Nations region (a proxy for geographical variation) explained 54%, 56%, and 66% of the variation in stunting, wasting, and underweight prevalence, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that regional, subregional, and country disparities in undernutrition remain, and the residual gaps to close towards achieving the second sustainable development goal-ending undernutrition by 2030.
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Mid Regional pro-ADM (MR-proADM) is a promising novel biomarker in the evaluation of deteriorating patients and an emergent prognosis factor in patients with sepsis, septic shock and organ failure. It can be induced by bacteria, fungi or viruses. We hypothesized that the assessment of MR-proADM, with or without other inflammatory cytokines, as part of a clinical assessment of COVID-19 patients at hospital admission, may assist in identifying those likely to develop severe disease. ⋯ This study shows an association between MR-proADM levels and the severity of COVID-19. The assessment of MR-proADM combined with clinical scoring systems could be of great value in triaging, evaluating possible escalation of therapies, and admission avoidance or inclusion into trials. Larger prospective and controlled studies are needed to confirm these findings.