Mathematical biosciences
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Mathematical biosciences · Jul 2020
Modeling the impact of mass influenza vaccination and public health interventions on COVID-19 epidemics with limited detection capability.
The emerging coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has caused a COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 causes a generally mild, but sometimes severe and even life-threatening infection, known as COVID-19. Currently, there exist no effective vaccines or drugs and, as such, global public authorities have so far relied upon non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). ⋯ Here, we show that increasing influenza vaccine uptake or enhancing the public health interventions would facilitate the management of respiratory outbreaks coinciding with the peak flu season, especially, compensate the shortage of the detection resources. However, how to increase influenza vaccination coverage rate remains challenging. Public health decision- and policy-makers should adopt evidence-informed strategies to improve influenza vaccine uptake.
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Mathematical biosciences · Jan 2020
A new five-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution for modeling bicoid gene expression data.
An extended version of Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with five parameters is introduced. Theoretical aspects of five-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution and the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters are presented. The reliability and applicability of the proposed distribution is evaluated using both simulation and real-world data namely bicoid gene expression profile. The findings of this research confirm that the newly proposed five-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution can be utilized to describe the distribution of bicoid gene expression profile.
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The existence of cooperation demands explanation since cooperation is costly to the actor. Reciprocity has long been regarded as a potential explanatory mechanism for the existence of cooperation. Reciprocity is a mechanism wherein a cooperator responds to an opponent's behavior by switching his/her own behavior. ⋯ We used evolutionarily stable strategy analysis to compare the condition for reciprocity to evolve when mistakes occur and information is imperfect with the condition for reciprocity to evolve when mistakes occur and information is perfect. Our study revealed that when payoffs are not linear, imperfect information can facilitate the evolution of reciprocity when mistakes occur; while when payoffs are linear, imperfect information disturbs the evolution of reciprocity even when mistakes occur. Imperfect information can encourage the evolution of cooperation.
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Mathematical biosciences · Jul 2015
Model-based computation of total stressed blood volume from a preload reduction manoeuvre.
Total stressed blood volume is an important parameter for both doctors and engineers. From a medical point of view, it has been associated with the success or failure of fluid therapy, a primary treatment to manage acute circulatory failure. From an engineering point of view, it dictates the cardiovascular system's behavior in changing physiological situations. ⋯ The model was able to track experimental trends with a maximal root mean squared error of 29.2%. Computed stressed blood volume equals 486 ± 117 ml or 15.7 ± 3.6 ml/kg, which matches previous independent experiments on pigs, dogs and humans. The method proposed in this work thus provides a simple way to compute total stressed blood volume from usual hemodynamic data.
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We investigate how the loss of previously evolved diversity in host resistance to disease is dependent on the complexity of the underlying evolutionary trade-off. Working within the adaptive dynamics framework, using graphical tools (pairwise invasion plots, PIPs; trait evolution plots, TEPs) and algebraic analysis we consider polynomial trade-offs of increasing degree. Our focus is on the evolutionary trajectory of the dimorphic population after it has been attracted to an evolutionary branching point. ⋯ In particular, the loss of diversity in this model always occurs in such a way that the remaining strain is not attracted back to the branching point but to an extreme of the trade-off, meaning the diversity is lost forever. We also show similar results for a non-polynomial but complex trade-off, and for a different eco-evolutionary model. Our work further highlights the importance of trade-offs to evolutionary behaviour.