Theoretical biology & medical modelling
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Medical records accumulate data concerning patient health and the natural history of disease progression. However, methods to mine information systematically in a form other than an electronic health record are not yet available. The purpose of this study was to develop an object modeling technique as a first step towards a formal database of medical records. ⋯ Translation of medical records into object models created the basis for a formal database of the patient narrative that temporally depicts the events preceding disease, the diagnosis and treatment approach. The LSCs object model of the medical narrative provided an intuitive, visual representation of the natural history of the patient's disease.
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Theor Biol Med Model · Jan 2012
A model to calculate cardiac output in hemodialysis patients by thermodilution.
The Blood Temperature Monitor module (BTM) is used to measure recirculation by thermodilution in dialysis. Numerous studies have confirmed its interest in the measuring of the vascular access flow. In this letter we describe a model to calculate cardiac output in dialysis by the BTM.
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Theor Biol Med Model · Nov 2011
The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics.
Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. ⋯ Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult travelers. However, as long as adults have at least a moderate potential to trigger an epidemic, selectively restricting the higher risk group (children) may not be a practical option to delay the arrival of an epidemic substantially.
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Theor Biol Med Model · Jan 2011
Time series analysis as input for clinical predictive modeling: modeling cardiac arrest in a pediatric ICU.
Thousands of children experience cardiac arrest events every year in pediatric intensive care units. Most of these children die. Cardiac arrest prediction tools are used as part of medical emergency team evaluations to identify patients in standard hospital beds that are at high risk for cardiac arrest. There are no models to predict cardiac arrest in pediatric intensive care units though, where the risk of an arrest is 10 times higher than for standard hospital beds. Current tools are based on a multivariable approach that does not characterize deterioration, which often precedes cardiac arrests. Characterizing deterioration requires a time series approach. The purpose of this study is to propose a method that will allow for time series data to be used in clinical prediction models. Successful implementation of these methods has the potential to bring arrest prediction to the pediatric intensive care environment, possibly allowing for interventions that can save lives and prevent disabilities. ⋯ We have proposed a ten step process that results in data sets that contain time series features and are suitable for predictive modeling by a number of methods. We illustrated the process through an example of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care setting.
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Theor Biol Med Model · Jan 2010
ReviewDiet as prophylaxis and treatment for venous thromboembolism?
Both prophylaxis and treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE: deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary emboli (PE)) with anticoagulants are associated with significant risks of major and fatal hemorrhage. Anticoagulation treatment of VTE has been the standard of care in the USA since before 1962 when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration began requiring randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) showing efficacy, so efficacy trials were never required for FDA approval. In clinical trials of 'high VTE risk' surgical patients before the 1980s, anticoagulant prophylaxis was clearly beneficial (fatal pulmonary emboli (FPE) without anticoagulants = 0.99%, FPE with anticoagulants = 0.31%). However, observational studies and RCTs of 'high VTE risk' surgical patients from the 1980s until 2010 show that FPE deaths without anticoagulants are about one-fourth the rate that occurs during prophylaxis with anticoagulants (FPE without anticoagulants = 0.023%, FPE while receiving anticoagulant prophylaxis = 0.10%). Additionally, an FPE rate of about 0.012% (35/28,400) in patients receiving prophylactic anticoagulants can be attributed to 'rebound hypercoagulation' in the two months after stopping anticoagulants. Alternatives to anticoagulant prophylaxis should be explored. ⋯ Because of (a) the risks of biochemical anticoagulation as anti-VTE prophylaxis or treatment, (b) the lack of placebo-controlled efficacy data supporting anticoagulant treatment of VTE, (c) dramatically reduced hospital-acquired FPE incidence in surgical patients without anticoagulant prophylaxis from 1980 - 2010 relative to the 1960s and 1970s, and (d) evidence that VTE incidence and outcomes may be influenced by diet, randomized controlled non-inferiority clinical trials are proposed to compare standard anticoagulant treatment with potentially low VTE risk diets. We call upon the U. S. National Institutes of Health and the U.K. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence to design and fund those trials.