Emergency medicine journal : EMJ
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As patient numbers presenting to emergency departments (ED) increase, with their myriad of comorbidities, early hospital admission prediction and demand modelling are crucial both in the ED and beyond. The Glasgow admission prediction score (GAPS) (figure 1)1 has already been shown to be accurate in predicting hospital admission from the ED at the point of triage.2 As demand on EDs increase, data driven models such as GAPS will become increasingly important for predicting patient course. However, GAPS has not previously been tested beyond the point of admission.emermed;34/12/A864-b/F1F1F1Figure 1 AIM: To assess whether GAPS has the ability to predict hospital length of stay (LOS), six-month mortality and six-month hospital readmission. ⋯ In total 1420 patients were recruited, 39.6% of these patients were initially admitted to hospital. At six months, 30.6% of patients had been readmitted and 5.6% of patients had died. For those admitted at first presentation, the chance of being discharged at any one time fell by 4.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2%-5.3%) per GAPS point increase. Figure 2 displays the Kaplan Meier curves for 6 month mortality. Cox regression showed a significant association between GAPS and mortality, with a hazard increase of 9% (95% CI:6.9% to 11.2%) for every point increase on GAPS. Figure 3 displays the Kaplan Meier curves for 6 month hospital readmission.emermed;34/12/A864-b/F2F2F2Figure 2 DISCUSSION: GAPS is a simple tool which utilises data routinely collected at triage. It is predictive of hospital admission, hospital length of stay, six-month all-cause mortality and six-month hospital readmission. Therefore, GAPS could be employed to aid staff in hospital bed planning, clinical decision making and ED resource allocation and utilisation.emermed;34/12/A864-b/F3F3F3Figure 3 REFERENCES: Logan E, et al. Predicating admission at triage. Presented at International Acute Medicine Conference, Edinburgh 2016.Cameron A, et al. A simple tool to predict admission at the time of triage. Emergency Medicine Journal2014.
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There has been a recent drive to implement rapid rule-out strategies which allow the early discharge of low-risk patients with suspected cardiac chest pain directly from the Emergency Department (ED). Previously, such patients would have been admitted to a hospital bed for observation and delayed biomarker testing. While the drive to implement rapid rule-out strategies comes from healthcare providers, there has been little assessment of patient perspectives on early discharge, in what is known to be a high-anxiety presentation. We aimed to explore patient perspectives on the acceptability of early discharge strategies. ⋯ Most patients would be satisfied with a rapid rule-out strategy, however, it should be acknowledged that patients receive reassurance from hospital admission and over 10% of patients would be dissatisfied with discharge direct from ED. Improved patient information and shared decision making is required when rapid discharge strategies are incorporated into practice.
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The presentation of multiple simultaneous trauma patients in an Emergency Department, is likely to place significant stress and strain on trauma care resources. Currently there is limited data available to understand the impact simultaneous trauma demands on patient outcomes. For the purposes of this project we define simultaneous trauma as occurring when there is more than one TARN qualifying major trauma patient within an Emergency Department at any one time. We hypothesise that with increasing numbers of simultaneous trauma patients a relative increase in mortality will be seen. ⋯ The impact of simultaneous trauma patients on patient outcomes within the UK has not been previously defined. Simultaneous trauma patients do not appear to have an impact on overall mortality rate.emermed;34/12/A888-a/T1F1T1Table 1Further work planned will understand the impact of multiple trauma patients on length of stay and time to CT/operating theatre.
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This project aimed to identify issues patients would like to see improved when interacting with the Minor Injuries Unit (MIU) and as a result generate measurable and feasible Always Events (AEs) based on patient feedback that can be implemented via a Quality Improvement (QI) process. We then looked to assess and improve on the delivery of the agreed AEs to enhance MIU patient experience. ⋯ Baseline results stood at 80% for patient satisfaction regarding information provision, rising to 88% by the end of the poster intervention and 92% by the end of the video intervention. Understanding of how the ED functions stood at 83% in the baseline sample before rising to 86% throughout the poster and video intervention. Composite survey results rose from a baseline level of 82.2% to 86.3% for the poster intervention and 88.8% by the end of the video intervention stage. Patient questionnaires indicated that information provision directly from staff was variable throughout the study period.emermed;34/12/A890-b/F1F1F1Figure 1emermed;34/12/A890-b/F2F2F2Figure 2 DISCUSSION: Implementing the AE approach in the MIU has had a positive effect on patient experience. The poster intervention had the greatest impact on enhancing patient understanding. Our study indicated that direct information provision from staff was sufficient for patients and improvements in responses were due to the project interventions. Next steps should be to further implement the video in the department via inclusion on the patient Wi-Fi homepage and waiting room television to maximise the impact of the video. The patient-staff co-design nature of this study shows the AE methods strength in improving patient-centred care. In summary, this project emphasises that the AE method is an effective, valid and beneficial form of Quality Improvement to be used within EDs which has the potential for widespread future use.
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The predominant cause of preventable death from trauma is bleeding. Many patients need resuscitation with massive blood transfusion (MBT). In some theatres of military operation there is limited blood product availability and walking donor panels can be required. This study aimed to produce a tool to predict the need for MBT using information available on patient arrival at the ED for patients sustaining battlefield trauma. ⋯ The derivation dataset was made up of 1298 casualties with a massive blood transfusion rate of 21.2% (n=275). The validation dataset contained 1186; MBT rate 6.7% (n=79). The majority of patients were young, male and with penetrating injury. Univariate regression analyses showing the predictive value of the variables within the MASH score are shown in table 1. A decision rule was produced using a combination of injury pattern, clinical observations and pre-hospital interventions. The test characteristics for three cut off thresholds for the rule are shown in Table 2 alongside the sensitivity analysis. The proposed rule, using a score of 3 or greater, demonstrated a sensitivity of 82.7% and a specificity of 88.8% for prediction of MBT, with an AUROC of 0.93 (95% CI:0.91 to 0.95).emermed;34/12/A869-b/T1F1T1Table 1Univariate regression analysis of variables included in the MASH score in the derivation dataset which predict the requirement for 6 units of pRBCs in 4 hours or 10 units of pRBCs in 24 hoursemermed;34/12/A869-b/T2F2T2Table 2Performance of the MASH score in derivation and validation datasets showing test characteristics for three values of the MASH score with 95% confidence intervals with sensitivity analysis for a score of 3 in the validation dataset CONCLUSIONS: This study has produced the first military scoring system that uses clinical observations, injuries sustained and pre-hospital interventions to predict the need for MBT and therefore the requirement for an emergency donor panel in resource-limited environments. The MASH score has higher sensitivity and specificity than previous military prediction tools, and has the advantage of only using information which is rapidly available in the resuscitation bay. This is of importance to civilian practitioners with increasing possibility of major terrorist attacks.