Articles: pandemics.
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Minerva anestesiologica · Dec 2012
Multicenter StudyEffectiveness and predictors of success of noninvasive ventilation during H1N1 pandemics: a multicenter study.
The use of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF) due to H1N1 virus infection is controversial. In this multicenter study we aimed to assess the efficacy of NIV in avoiding endotracheal intubation (ETI) and to identify predictors of success or failure. ⋯ The early application of NIV, with the aim to avoid invasive ventilation, during the H1N1 pandemics was associated with an overall success rate of 47/98 (48%). Patients presenting at admission with an high SAPS II score and a low PaO(2)/FiO(2) ratio and/or unable to promptly correct gas exchange are at high risk of intubation and mortality.
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Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. ⋯ New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.