Articles: disease.
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Plausible projections of future mortality and disability are a useful aid in decisions on priorities for health research, capital investment, and training. Rates and patterns of ill health are determined by factors such as socioeconomic development, educational attainment, technological developments, and their dispersion among populations, as well as exposure to hazards such as tobacco. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), we developed three scenarios of future mortality and disability for different age-sex groups, causes, and regions. ⋯ Health trends in the next 25 years will be determined mainly by the ageing of the world's population, the decline in age-specific mortality rates from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders, the spread of HIV, and the increase in tobacco-related mortality and disability. Projections, by their nature, are highly uncertain, but we found some robust results with implications for health policy.
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Prevention and control of disease and injury require information about the leading medical causes of illness and exposures or risk factors. The assessment of the public-health importance of these has been hampered by the lack of common methods to investigate the overall, worldwide burden. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) provides a standardised approach to epidemiological assessment and uses a standard unit, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to aid comparisons. ⋯ The three leading contributors to the burden of disease are communicable and perinatal disorders affecting children. The substantial burdens of neuropsychiatric disorders and injuries are under-recognised. The epidemiological transition in terms of DALYs has progressed substantially in China, Latin America and the Caribbean, other Asia and islands, and the middle eastern crescent. If the burdens of disability and death are taken into account, our list differs substantially from other lists of the leading causes of death. DALYs provide a common metric to aid meaningful comparison of the burden of risk factors, diseases, and injuries.
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Information on non-fatal health outcomes of disease and injury has been largely neglected in health planning because of the conceptual and definitional complexity of measuring morbidity and disability in populations. One of our major objectives was to quantify disability for inclusion in health policy debates. We analysed these health outcomes in terms of disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and disability-adjusted life expectancy (DALE). ⋯ The higher proportion of lifespan spent disabled in high-mortality populations is consistent with the compression of morbidity hypothesis. The threshold definition of disability used substantially affects the results of DFLE, DALE, which incorporates severity weights for disabilities, is a useful summary measure of the burden of disability and mortality.
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Recently, new information has been published about: a) the relationship between combination oral contraceptives (OCs), estrogen dose, cigarette smoking, and the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke; and b) the effect of different progestins on the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We review the epidemiologic data. Regardless of age, in the absence of smoking, use of sub-50 micrograms OCs is not associated with any meaningful increase in risk of MI or stroke. ⋯ However, smokers over the age of 35 years who use OCs still have an unacceptably high incidence rate of MI and stroke and should not use combination OCs. Sub-50 micrograms OCs of all types are associated with a small excess risk of VTE, about 15 per 100,000 events per year. Until there is biologic explanation of the twofold greater risk of VTE in users of OCs containing desogestrel or gestodene compared with users of those containing older progestins, this association should not be accepted as one of cause and effect.
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In 1992, 112 pregnancies occurred per 1,000 U. S. women aged 15-19; of these, 61 ended in births, 36 in abortions and 15 in miscarriages. Black teenagers' rates of pregnancies, births and abortions were 2-3 times those of whites; Hispanic teenagers had rates of births and abortions between those of blacks and whites. ⋯ Between 1991 and 1995, the birth rate of black teenagers fell from 116 to 96 per 1,000, a level well below that of Hispanics (106 per 1,000). Among the states, pregnancy rates per 1,000 teenagers in 1992 ranged from 159 (in California) to 59 (in North Dakota), birth rates per 1,000 varied from 84 (Mississippi) to 31 (New Hampshire) and abortion rates per 1,000 ranged from 67 (Hawaii) to nine (Utah). The pregnancy rates of white and black teenagers are negatively correlated.