Articles: coronavirus.
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Med J Islam Repub Iran · Jan 2020
Modeling and forecasting trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran until May 13, 2020.
Background: COVID-19 is a new disease and precise data are not available about this illness in Iran and in the world. Thus, this study aimed to determine the epidemic trend and prediction of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: This was a secondary data analysis and modeling study. ⋯ Based on Gompertz and von models, 7900 (6200- 9300) and 4620 (3930- 5550) deaths will occur from May 13 to June 1, 2020, respectively, and then the curve will flatten. Conclusion: In this study, estimations were made based on severely ill patients who were in need of hospitalization. If enforcement and public behavior interventions continue with current trends, the COVID-19 epidemic will be flat from May 13 until July, 2020 in Iran.
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Med J Islam Repub Iran · Jan 2020
Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during epidemics? Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran.
Background: The new Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first identified in China in 2019. Case fatality rate (CFR) indicator of the disease is one of the most important indices noticed by experts, policymakers, and managers, based on which daily evaluations and many judgments are made. CFR can change during epidemics. ⋯ Moreover, it is suggested that in the outbreak of an epidemic, specifically emerging diseases, CFR must not be the base of judgment. Making judgments, specifically in the outbreak of emerging epidemics, based on fatality rate can lead to information bias. It is also possible to estimate the total number of patients based on the CFR in circumstances where little information is available on the disease.
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A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9-32%).
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Frontiers in psychology · Jan 2020
Biopsychosocial and Spiritual Implications of Patients With COVID-19 Dying in Isolation.
Critically ill patients with the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are dying in isolation without the comfort of their family or other social support in unprecedented numbers. Recently, healthcare teams at COVID-19 epicenters have been inundated with critically ill patients. Patients isolated for COVID-19 have had no contact with their family or loved ones and may have likely experienced death without closure. ⋯ Here, we discuss the importance of the biopsychosocial spiritual model in end-of-life care and its implications on patients dying with COVID-19. Furthermore, we outline an integrative approach to address the unique and holistic needs of critically ill patients dying with COVID-19. These include intentional and increased coordination with trained palliative care staff, early and frequent goals of care including discussion of end-of-life plans, broader use of technology to improve connectedness, and shared decision making with patients' families.
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JMIR Bioinform Biotech · Jan 2020
Structural Basis for Designing Multiepitope Vaccines Against COVID-19 Infection: In Silico Vaccine Design and Validation.
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has led to the ongoing 2019-2020 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is a positive-sense single-stranded RNA coronavirus. Effective countermeasures against SARS-CoV-2 infection require the design and development of specific and effective vaccine candidates. ⋯ The present study is highly significant in terms of the molecular design of prospective CTL and HTL vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection with potential to elicit cellular and humoral immune responses. The epitopes of the designed MEVs are predicted to cover the large human population worldwide (96.10%). Hence, both designed MEVs could be tried in vivo as potential vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2.