• Andreas Stang, Maximilian Stang, and Karl-Heinz Jöckel.
• Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen; School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Boston University, USA.
• Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2020 May 8; 117 (19): 329-335.

BackgroundThere is concern in Germany that the capacity of intensive care unit (ICU) beds may not be sufficient for the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim was to determine the maximum daily number of COVID-19 cases requiring intensive care from 11 April through 30 June 2020.MethodsWe assumed three non-exponential scenarios for the development of the cumulative case numbers up to 30 June 2020 (linear, slow quadratic, and fast quadratic). We assumed that 3-10% of of patients would require intensive care, that 8 days would elapse from a positive test to the need for intensive care, and that intensive care would be necessary for 14 or 20 days.ResultsExtrapolation of the maximum registered daily COVID-19 cases reveals a range of 4133 to 12 233 cases. Assuming that 3-10% of newly detected COVID-19 cases become intensive care patients and the average length of ICU stay is between 14 and 20 days, we arrive at a maximum daily number of ICU cases between 1989 (linear extrapolation, 3% ICU, 14 days in ICU) and 20 966 (fast quadratic extrapolation, 10% ICU, 20 days in ICU).ConclusionOur results give no rise for concern that triage of COVID-19 patients may become necessary in Germany. However, the occupancy of ICU beds should be managed centrally to ensure optimal use of bed capacity. If, contrary to expectations, an exponential increase in case numbers should occur after all, our results will become invalid.

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