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- Pia Bartels, Oliver C Thamm, Julia Elrod, Paul Fuchs, Konrad Reinshagen, German Burn RegistryGerman Society for Burn Treatment (DGV), Committee of the German Burn Registry, Luisenstrasse 58-59, 10117 Berli... more
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, Burn Unit, Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Altona Children's Hospital, Bleickenallee 38, 22763 Hamburg, Germany.
- Burns. 2020 Sep 1; 46 (6): 1272-1279.
ObjectivesThe Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) is a widely used and simple score to predict mortality after burn injuries. On the one hand, significant improvements in intensive care management and surgical treatment result in an increased survival rate. On the other hand, the aging population might lead to an increased injury-related mortality rate. Therefore, the question arises whether the ABSI still accurately predicts survival.MethodsData of 14,984 patients from the German Burn Registry from 2015 to 2018 were analyzed to re-evaluate the variables included in the ABSI, identify discrepancies between the predicted age-related probability of survival and the actual survival rate. Descriptive statistics, univariate analysis and binary logistic regression were used to test the variable impact and to establish a modified score.ResultsThe original ABSI does not accurately predict the survival in the present cohort. In particular, univariate analysis identified age, total body surface area burned, full thickness burn and inhalation injury as significant impactors on survival. Moreover, sex could not be confirmed as significant and was, therefore, excluded from the modified score. The assumption of a linear relation between age and mortality was not correct. We developed a new age scale representing the actual existing relationship. The resulting modified score was significantly more accurate in predicting the probability of survival for all burn score categories.ConclusionThe ABSI does not accurately predict probability of survival. Mortality is overestimated in severely burned patients. A modified version was developed that was significantly more accurate in predicting the probability of survival in this cohort.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.
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