• David Thurtle, Ola Bratt, Pär Stattin, Paul Pharoah, and Vincent Gnanapragasam.
• Academic Urology Group, University of Cambridge, Norman Bleehan Offices, Addenbrookes Hospital, Hills Road, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK. Dt433@cam.ac.uk.
• Bmc Med. 2020 Jun 16; 18 (1): 139.

BackgroundPREDICT Prostate is an endorsed prognostic model that provides individualised long-term prostate cancer-specific and overall survival estimates. The model, derived from UK data, estimates potential treatment benefit on overall survival. In this study, we externally validated the model in a large independent dataset and compared performance to existing models and within treatment groups.MethodsMen with non-metastatic prostate cancer and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) < 100 ng/ml diagnosed between 2000 and 2010 in the nationwide population-based Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) were included. Data on age, PSA, clinical stage, grade group, biopsy involvement, primary treatment and comorbidity were retrieved. Sixty-nine thousand two hundred six men were included with 13.9 years of median follow-up. Fifteen-year survival estimates were calculated using PREDICT Prostate for prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and all-cause mortality (ACM). Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's concordance (c)-index in R. Calibration was evaluated using cumulative available follow-up in Stata (TX, USA).ResultsOverall discrimination of PREDICT Prostate was good with c-indices of 0.85 (95% CI 0.85-0.86) for PCSM and 0.79 (95% CI 0.79-0.80) for ACM. Overall calibration of the model was excellent with 25,925 deaths predicted and 25,849 deaths observed. Within the conservative management and radical treatment groups, c-indices for 15-year PCSM were 0.81 and 0.78, respectively. Calibration also remained good within treatment groups. The discrimination of PREDICT Prostate significantly outperformed the EAU, NCCN and CAPRA scores for both PCSM and ACM within this cohort overall. A key limitation is the use of retrospective cohort data.ConclusionsThis large external validation demonstrates that PREDICT Prostate is a robust and generalisable model to aid clinical decision-making.

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