• Yuanyuan Zhuo, Jiaman Wu, Yimin Qu, Haibo Yu, Xingxian Huang, Benny Zee, Jack Lee, and Zhuoxin Yang.
• Shenzhen Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital.
• Medicine (Baltimore). 2020 Jun 26; 99 (26): e20830.

AbstractTo identify the clinical risk factors and investigate the efficacy of a classification model based on the identified factors for predicting 2-year recurrence after ischemic stroke.From June 2017 to January 2019, 358 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were enrolled and followed up in Shenzhen Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital. Demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded by trained medical staff. The outcome was defined as recurrence within 2 years. A multivariate logistic regression model with risk factors and their interaction effects was established and evaluated.The mean (standard deviation) age of the participants was 61.6 (12.1) years, and 101 (28.2%) of the 358 patients were female. The common comorbidities included hypertension (286 patients, 79.9%), diabetes (148 patients, 41.3%), and hyperlipidemia (149 patients, 41.6%). The 2-year recurrence rate was 30.7%. Of the 23 potential risk factors, 10 were significantly different between recurrent and non-recurrent subjects in the univariate analysis. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed based on 10 risk factors. The significant variables include diabetes mellitus, smoking status, peripheral artery disease, hypercoagulable state, depression, 24 h minimum systolic blood pressure, 24 h maximum diastolic blood pressure, age, family history of stroke, NIHSS score status. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.726-0.829) with a sensitivity of 0.61 and a specificity of 0.81, indicating a potential predictive ability.Ten risk factors were identified, and an effective classification model was built. This may aid clinicians in identifying high-risk patients who would benefit most from intensive follow-up and aggressive risk factor reduction.The clinical trial registration number: ChiCTR1800019647.

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