• Dtsch Arztebl Int · Aug 2019

    Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany: Moving on From the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

    • Kai Chen, Susanne Breitner, Kathrin Wolf, Masna Rai, Christa Meisinger, Margit Heier, Bernhard Kuch, Annette Peters, and Alexandra Schneider.
    • Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich; Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Chair of Epidemiology at UNIKA-T, University of Augsburg; Independent Research Group Clinical Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich; MONICA/KORA Myocardial Infarction Registry, University Hospital of Augsburg; KORA Study Center, University Hospital of Augsburg; Department of Internal Medicine I - Cardiology, University Hospital of Augsburg; Department of Internal Medicine/Cardiology, Nördlingen Hospital, Nördlingen; German Research Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner-Site Munich; The KORA-Study Group consists of A. Peters (spokesperson), H. Schulz, L. Schwettmann, R. Leidl, M. Heier, K. Strauch, and their co-workers, who are responsible for the design and conduct of the KORA studies.
    • Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2019 Aug 5; 116 (31-32): 521-527.

    BackgroundSubstantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C.MethodsUsing daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation.ResultsIn a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 °C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 °C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively.ConclusionThe future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 °C and 3 °C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 °C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.

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