• S E Ward, G R Holmes, J L Morgan, J W Broggio, K Collins, P D Richards, Reed M W R MWR 0000-0001-7442-2132 Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK., and L Wyld.
• Department of Health Economics and Decision Science, School for Health and Related Research, Sheffield.
• Br J Surg. 2020 Nov 1; 107 (12): 1625-1632.

BackgroundA prognostic model was developed and validated using cancer registry data. This underpins an online decision support tool, informing primary treatment choice for women aged 70 years or older with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer.MethodsData from women diagnosed between 2002 and 2010 in the English Northern and Yorkshire and West Midlands regions were used to develop the model. Primary treatment options of surgery with adjuvant endocrine therapy or primary endocrine therapy were compared. Models predicting the hazard of breast cancer-specific mortality and hazard of other-cause mortality were combined to derive survival probabilities. The model was validated externally using data from the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre.ResultsThe model was developed using data from 23 842 women, and validated externally on a data set from 14 526 patients. The overall model calibration was good. At 2 and 5 years, predicted mortality from breast cancer and other causes differed from the observed rate by less than 1 per cent. At 5 years, there were slight overpredictions in breast cancer mortality (2629 predicted versus 2556 observed deaths; P = 0·142) and mortality from all causes (6399 versus 6320 respectively; P = 0·583). The discrepancy varied between subgroups. Model discrimination was 0·75 or above for all mortality measures.ConclusionA prognostic model for older women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer was developed and validated in the present study. This forms a basis for an online decision support tool (https://agegap.shef.ac.uk/).© 2020 The Authors. British Journal of Surgery published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJS Society Ltd.

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