• Kalle Sipilä, Antti Tikkakoski, Sanni Alanko, Atte Haarala, Jussi Hernesniemi, Leo-Pekka Lyytikäinen, Jari Viik, Terho Lehtimäki, Tuomo Nieminen, Kjell Nikus, and Mika Kähönen.
• Department of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine, Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland.
• Ann. Med. 2019 Nov 1; 51 (7-8): 390-396.

AbstractAims: We investigated the combination of low systolic blood pressure (SBP) response, low exercise capacity (EC) and slow heart rate recovery (HRR) during an exercise test in mortality prediction.Patients and methods: Our population consisted of 3456 patients from the Finnish Cardiovascular Study. A failure of SBP to increase >42 mmHg was defined as a low response. Low EC was defined as  < 8 metabolic equivalents. 1-minute HRR ≤18 bpm from maximum was defined as slow HRR.Results: During a median follow up of 10.0 years, 537 participants died. Reduced SBP response, low EC and slow HRR were independent predictors of all-cause and CV mortality (p < .001 for all). Patients with reduced SBP response, low EC and slow HRR had a very high mortality rate of 42.1% during follow up compared to only 4.5% of the patients without any of these risk factors. The hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in patients with one, two or three of the studied risk factors were 3.2, 6.0, and 10.6, respectively (p < .001 for all).Conclusion: The combination of reduced SBP response, low exercise capacity, and reduced HRR in an exercise test is associated with very high mortality and can be used in risk stratification.Key messagesThe combination of low blood pressure response, low exercise capacity and slow heart rate recovery in an exercise test is able to identify a group of patients in a very high mortality risk.These parameters are easily derived from an exercise test.All parameters are commonly available in clinical practice.

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