• Jesse Sussell, Jacqueline Vanderpuye-Orgle, Diana Vania, Hans-Peter Goertz, and Darius Lakdawalla.
• Precision Health Economics, 555 12th St, Ste 1725, Oakland, CA 94607. Email: jesse.sussell@pheconomics.com.
• Am J Manag Care. 2019 Jun 1; 25 (6): 273-277.

ObjectivesThe causes of oncology drug price growth remain unclear. Analyzing corresponding trends in revenue can help understand these causes. This study seeks to assess changes over time in prices, patient counts, and drug-level revenues in the US market for oncology therapies and to investigate whether price growth is driven by an increased ability by pharmaceutical firms to capture profits.Study DesignNineteen-year retrospective study (1997-2015).MethodsWe used panel regression to investigate trends in prices, patient counts, and revenues within a US national data set consisting of targeted oncology therapies launched in different eras.ResultsWe find that prices have roughly tripled, whereas average patient counts per therapy have fallen by 85% to 90% over this period. However, the entire distribution of annual revenues has fallen: For instance, median revenues for drugs launched in the early 2010s are about half of what they were for drugs launched in the late 1990s.ConclusionsFuture research on the causes of quantity decline can help inform pharmaceutical policy.

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