• Shuai Zhang, Mengfei Guo, Limin Duan, Feng Wu, Guorong Hu, Zhihui Wang, Qi Huang, Tingting Liao, Juanjuan Xu, Yanling Ma, Zhilei Lv, Wenjing Xiao, Zilin Zhao, Xueyun Tan, Daquan Meng, Shujing Zhang, E Zhou, Zhengrong Yin, Wei Geng, Xuan Wang, Jianchu Zhang, Jianguo Chen, Yu Zhang, and Yang Jin.
• Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, NHC Key Laboratory of Pulmonary Diseases, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, Hubei, China.
• Crit Care. 2020 Jul 16; 24 (1): 438438.

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of global concern. We aimed to explore the risk factors of 14-day and 28-day mortality and develop a model for predicting 14-day and 28-day survival probability among adult hospitalized patients with COVID-19.MethodsIn this multicenter, retrospective, cohort study, we examined 828 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 hospitalized in Wuhan Union Hospital and Central Hospital of Wuhan between January 12 and February 9, 2020. Among the 828 patients, 516 and 186 consecutive patients admitted in Wuhan Union Hospital were enrolled in the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. A total of 126 patients hospitalized in Central Hospital of Wuhan were enrolled in a second external validation cohort. Demographic, clinical, radiographic, and laboratory measures; treatment; proximate causes of death; and 14-day and 28-day mortality are described. Patients' data were collected by reviewing the medical records, and their 14-day and 28-day outcomes were followed up.ResultsOf the 828 patients, 146 deaths were recorded until May 18, 2020. In the training set, multivariate Cox regression indicated that older age, lactate dehydrogenase level over 360 U/L, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio higher than 8.0, and direct bilirubin higher than 5.0 μmol/L were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. Nomogram scoring systems for predicting the 14-day and 28-day survival probability of patients with COVID-19 were developed and exhibited strong discrimination and calibration power in the two external validation cohorts (C-index, 0.878 and 0.839).ConclusionOlder age, high lactate dehydrogenase level, evaluated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and high direct bilirubin level were independent predictors of 28-day mortality in adult hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19. The nomogram system based on the four factors revealed good discrimination and calibration, suggesting good clinical utility.

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