• Pablo Lamelas, Fernando Botto, Gustavo Pedernera, Alberto Alves De Lima, Juan Pablo Costabel, and Jorge Belardi.
• Instituto Cardiovascular de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina. E-mail: plamelas@icba.com.ar.
• Medicina (B Aires). 2020 Jan 1; 80 (3): 248-252.

AbstractThere are increasing reports of a drastic drop in consultations and cardiovascular procedures (including urgencies and emergencies) in regions affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a consequent marked increase in total mortality that is not fully explained by COVID-19. Cardiovascular disease leads the ranking in deaths in adults in Argentina with 280 deaths per day, and in recent decades we have reduced its mortality by 20-30% through various evidence-based interventions. Herein we conducted predictive analyses to understand what could be the consequences of a worse implementation of those interventions. We estimate that less control of cardiovascular risk factors from April to October 2020 could cause up to 10 500 new preventable cases of cardiovascular disease. In terms of myocardial infarction, a drop from 40% to 60% of the reperfusion treatment could increase mortality by 3% to 5%. A marginal 10% to 15% increase in relative risk of cardiovascular death would be equivalent to an excess of 6000 to 9000 preventable deaths. In conclusion, given the high prevalence and fatality of cardiovascular disease, even a small negative impact on the efficacy of its care will translate into large numbers of people affected in Argentina. It is necessary to inform the authorities and educate the public so cardiovascular diseases and their risk factors remain a health priority, as long as resources exist and minimizing the risk of contagion and spread of the virus.

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