• Sidney Le, Emily Pellegrini, Abigail Green-Saxena, Charlotte Summers, Jana Hoffman, Jacob Calvert, and Ritankar Das.
• Dascena Inc., San Francisco, CA, United States.
• J Crit Care. 2020 Dec 1; 60: 96-102.

PurposeAcute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a serious respiratory condition with high mortality and associated morbidity. The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate a novel application of gradient boosted tree models trained on patient health record data for the early prediction of ARDS.Materials And Methods9919 patient encounters were retrospectively analyzed from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) data base. XGBoost gradient boosted tree models for early ARDS prediction were created using routinely collected clinical variables and numerical representations of radiology reports as inputs. XGBoost models were iteratively trained and validated using 10-fold cross validation.ResultsOn a hold-out test set, algorithm classifiers attained area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of 0.905 when tested for the detection of ARDS at onset and 0.827, 0.810, and 0.790 for the prediction of ARDS at 12-, 24-, and 48-h windows prior to onset, respectively.ConclusionSupervised machine learning predictions may help predict patients with ARDS up to 48 h prior to onset.Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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